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ThomasVeil

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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #20 on: May 11, 2014, 09:34:19 am »

Current market depth (BTER):

Bids: 1.4 Million NXT
Asks: 0.5 Million NXT

Current market depth (Cryptsy):

Bids: 0.19 Million NXT
Asks: 0.035 Million NXT

I've seen at one point more than a Million NXT for sale on cryptsy. I can imagine that some big owners cashed out in the updraft. The liquidity was there.

Seems to me that Bter is the place where the experienced NXT owners like to trade. Their other currencies don't have such a high volume typically (as a function of their popularity).
Cryptsy is likely where newbs will enter. So the numbers look good for more users coming in, if my observations are right.
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lightspeed

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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #21 on: May 12, 2014, 09:43:15 pm »

May 12th 2014: 22:00 UTC - Interim Report. Battle Lines Drawn @ 7500
**************************************************************************

Current market depth (BTER):

Bids: 2.4 Million NXT
Asks: 0.6 Million NXT

Source: Bitcoinwisdom. (NOTE: Altcoincharts and BCW do not agree at the moment, however the latter source appears unserviceable for NXT market depth)

Reach on BTER:

10,000 NXT = 7290 Satoshis
50,000 NXT = 7499
100,000 NXT = 7500
200,000 NXT = 7500
500,000 NXT = 8000

This evening's 500,000 cashout takes us to 6725.

Prognosis: We appear to have reached the end of the "cool-off" period and the order book is bubbling again. The last 24 hours has seen NXT form the 3rd largest market on BTER after BTC and Doge with a trading volume of approximately 140 BTC over the day.

It's a game of minnows and whales with little in between, however the whales are coming from both directions as today's market depth shows. Despite the price rise since the last report we now have the half million buy available on the order book, so once again large holders are availing themselves of the new found liquidity in the market.

Battle lines appear to be drawn around the 7500 to 8000 Satoshi region and if the market manages to get to that level with sufficient liquidity then we may see some interesting action for a while.



Moving averages and their derivative indicators are still completing their bearish cycles with the shorter term ones starting to diverge gently to the upside. So what is suggested is:

[1] - a gentle rise to possibly 7400 or 7500

[2] - either a bounce-off back to 7000+ or a steady high volume exchange starting around 7500



8000 is still well over the horizon since it's the other side of the 7500 battleground which may be bloody. Of course if sell walls are pulled then we could be spared the grey hairs, but that will only happen if the market gains confidence and possibly depends more on product fundamentals and media perception than charts.



As always, health warnings apply and with the small spreads available right now, attempts at accumulation are not recommended for the faint of heart or pocket, however some tuna sandwiches and your beverage of choice may enhance the spectacle.

Happy trading !

Postscript: There is desert today. Not directly related to NXT, however Bitcoin is the reserve currency in which all other alts are traded so I trust readers will agree that what's significant for Bitcoin is significant for everyone else :)

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/can-bitcoin-save-the-post-office-iQx5kWnzQI~iWL2ZmNNm0A.html

PPS: As background, long range convergeance-divergeance rate charts for Bitcoin are beginning to cross over with the 3-day having just done so for the first time since December. The very longest and most unambiguous is projected to turn around during June.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2014, 03:05:25 pm by lightspeed »
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allbits

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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #22 on: May 12, 2014, 11:24:33 pm »

Entertaining read.  I love the style.  Have you done financial writing professionally?
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lightspeed

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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #23 on: May 12, 2014, 11:44:02 pm »

Entertaining read.  I love the style.  Have you done financial writing professionally?

Absolutely not :) (Not remotely qualified for a start). Although providing commentary on cryptocurrency markets is a bit of a baptism of fire. I may consider it if I survive  ;)
« Last Edit: May 13, 2014, 12:19:06 am by lightspeed »
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2Kool4Skewl

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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #24 on: May 13, 2014, 04:22:47 am »

Entertaining read.  I love the style.  Have you done financial writing professionally?

Absolutely not :) (Not remotely qualified for a start). Although providing commentary on cryptocurrency markets is a bit of a baptism of fire. I may consider it if I survive  ;)

You're doing a great job.  I enjoy reading these reports.
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ThomasVeil

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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #25 on: May 13, 2014, 01:21:53 pm »

Agree: interesting writeup again.
The youtube vid is down. What was it about?
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mikesbmw

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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #26 on: May 13, 2014, 01:54:36 pm »


PPS: As background, long range convergeance-divergeance rate charts for Bitcoin are beginning to cross over with the 3-day having just done so for the first time since December. The very longest and most unambiguous is projected to turn around during June.

Other trading sites and blogs seem to agree with you. So lets hope that we are at the end of the 5-6 months cycle and are on our way up!
Thanks again for your reports!
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lightspeed

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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #27 on: May 13, 2014, 03:06:08 pm »

The youtube vid is down. What was it about?

Sorry about that. Replaced with another link. Try now.
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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #28 on: May 14, 2014, 04:54:33 pm »

@ lightspeed - love the graphs

I think it would be great if these graphs were in a video on YouTube, I would certainly subscribe. Kind of like MadBitCoins - with a little less Mad.
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jl777

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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #29 on: May 15, 2014, 05:03:11 am »

I have discovered an anomaly
I am hoping some valuation experts can solve this.

With NXT AE it is possible, actually almost certain, that the total value of all the assets will be worth well in excess of a billion NXT

This is in spite of each asset being fairly valued. I know this means that nobody can purchase all the NXT assets, ever, so it is kind of immunity against financial attack on NXT assets, but does anybody else find this a little confusing?

How can NXT have NXT assets such that the sum of the NXT assets values are well in excess of a billion NXT. Wouldnt this cause a dramatic shortage of NXT. Currently we are well below this mark, but I predict in a few months we will cross that threshold. And there is nothing that stops more and more assets from being issued. The total asset values could well exceed 100 billion NXT down the road.

I predict at that point, the scarcity of NXT (assuming 1% of assets per day trade) will lead to a critical shortage of NXT. The "problem" is that the spike in NXT price will attract more asset issuers making the problem worse. It feedsback on itself...

James
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Uniqueorn

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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #30 on: May 15, 2014, 06:04:42 am »

I have discovered an anomaly
I am hoping some valuation experts can solve this.

With NXT AE it is possible, actually almost certain, that the total value of all the assets will be worth well in excess of a billion NXT

This is in spite of each asset being fairly valued. I know this means that nobody can purchase all the NXT assets, ever, so it is kind of immunity against financial attack on NXT assets, but does anybody else find this a little confusing?

How can NXT have NXT assets such that the sum of the NXT assets values are well in excess of a billion NXT. Wouldnt this cause a dramatic shortage of NXT. Currently we are well below this mark, but I predict in a few months we will cross that threshold. And there is nothing that stops more and more assets from being issued. The total asset values could well exceed 100 billion NXT down the road.

I predict at that point, the scarcity of NXT (assuming 1% of assets per day trade) will lead to a critical shortage of NXT. The "problem" is that the spike in NXT price will attract more asset issuers making the problem worse. It feedsback on itself...

James


My initial thought (caution: after being up all night) is that if the assets on AE become more valuable then the demand for NXT (as the only way to acquire said assets) will automatically go up equally. The AE is after all a part of the "NXT token".
And with NQT, I don't think this'll ever be a problem. Instead of a share costing 1 NXT it might cost 0.01 NXT, but the value stays the same.
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2Kool4Skewl

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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #31 on: May 15, 2014, 06:09:32 am »

I have discovered an anomaly
I am hoping some valuation experts can solve this.

With NXT AE it is possible, actually almost certain, that the total value of all the assets will be worth well in excess of a billion NXT

This is in spite of each asset being fairly valued. I know this means that nobody can purchase all the NXT assets, ever, so it is kind of immunity against financial attack on NXT assets, but does anybody else find this a little confusing?

How can NXT have NXT assets such that the sum of the NXT assets values are well in excess of a billion NXT. Wouldnt this cause a dramatic shortage of NXT. Currently we are well below this mark, but I predict in a few months we will cross that threshold. And there is nothing that stops more and more assets from being issued. The total asset values could well exceed 100 billion NXT down the road.

I predict at that point, the scarcity of NXT (assuming 1% of assets per day trade) will lead to a critical shortage of NXT. The "problem" is that the spike in NXT price will attract more asset issuers making the problem worse. It feedsback on itself...

James

The AE will host other crypto and fiat currencies via gateways.  AE assets should be able to be priced in other currencies besides NXT.
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bitcoinpaul

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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #32 on: May 15, 2014, 06:12:29 am »

The AE will host other crypto and fiat currencies via gateways.  AE assets should be able to be priced in other currencies besides NXT.

And here we go again ;D
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jl777

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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #33 on: May 15, 2014, 06:18:57 am »

I have discovered an anomaly
I am hoping some valuation experts can solve this.

With NXT AE it is possible, actually almost certain, that the total value of all the assets will be worth well in excess of a billion NXT

This is in spite of each asset being fairly valued. I know this means that nobody can purchase all the NXT assets, ever, so it is kind of immunity against financial attack on NXT assets, but does anybody else find this a little confusing?

How can NXT have NXT assets such that the sum of the NXT assets values are well in excess of a billion NXT. Wouldnt this cause a dramatic shortage of NXT. Currently we are well below this mark, but I predict in a few months we will cross that threshold. And there is nothing that stops more and more assets from being issued. The total asset values could well exceed 100 billion NXT down the road.

I predict at that point, the scarcity of NXT (assuming 1% of assets per day trade) will lead to a critical shortage of NXT. The "problem" is that the spike in NXT price will attract more asset issuers making the problem worse. It feedsback on itself...

James


My initial thought (caution: after being up all night) is that if the assets on AE become more valuable then the demand for NXT (as the only way to acquire said assets) will automatically go up equally. The AE is after all a part of the "NXT token".
And with NQT, I don't think this'll ever be a problem. Instead of a share costing 1 NXT it might cost 0.01 NXT, but the value stays the same.
Your logic would work if only it wasnt all priced in NXT. Once the total value goes above the inverse of the average trading percentage of all the assets, it will create an exponential (?) feedback loop of unknown periodicity

At least that is what I think

James
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qbd1313

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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #34 on: May 15, 2014, 06:29:19 am »

cool report. :D
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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #35 on: May 15, 2014, 06:47:09 am »

Nxt is not totally a story of speculation. There is real economy behind the the value of NXT : we can forge with them. Since monday, I forged 7 blocks and reward 16 NXT (I'm not lucky). It's mean, that I can hope 2000 NXT in one year. It make 0.4 % of yearly retribution. It's better than my bank account retribution.
If I look the global average fee per block, it's 13 NXT per block, that mean I can hope 11k NXT per year. It's 2.76% per year !

And it's only the beginning !

If I had BTC, what can I hope ? Nothing. It's only storage like coins in a safe.

I don't think that NXT will sky rocket like a lot of people think. NXT is more stable value, but it's real value.

Every Tokens on Nxt are their own value, real value based on real things, real business. But they aren't NXT, NXT is the basis of the system : for the security, used to buy and sell and become the fees.

Also, the value of NXT depend of "Blocks rewards" and the need of basis liquidity in the system.
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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #36 on: May 15, 2014, 11:54:48 am »

I have discovered an anomaly
I am hoping some valuation experts can solve this.

With NXT AE it is possible, actually almost certain, that the total value of all the assets will be worth well in excess of a billion NXT

This is in spite of each asset being fairly valued. I know this means that nobody can purchase all the NXT assets, ever, so it is kind of immunity against financial attack on NXT assets, but does anybody else find this a little confusing?

How can NXT have NXT assets such that the sum of the NXT assets values are well in excess of a billion NXT. Wouldnt this cause a dramatic shortage of NXT. Currently we are well below this mark, but I predict in a few months we will cross that threshold. And there is nothing that stops more and more assets from being issued. The total asset values could well exceed 100 billion NXT down the road.

I predict at that point, the scarcity of NXT (assuming 1% of assets per day trade) will lead to a critical shortage of NXT. The "problem" is that the spike in NXT price will attract more asset issuers making the problem worse. It feedsback on itself...

James

I think there is a problem with your reasoning, unless I misunderstand the way the AE works.
The way I see things is that the value of assets is only referred to in Nxt, but it doesn't mean the Nxt equivalent would be drained from the monetary mass.
Let me explain : If I want to buy Anon's silver at market price (around $600 per kilogram), I'll need to spend 20000 Nxt per kg. Let's suppose someone sells that to me. 20k Nxt move from my account to his and I get the corresponding tokens, which are like a proof of my ownership, the silver being stored in Anon's basement (where does he live, by the way ? :D). Once the seller receives his Nxt, he'll exchange them with dollars, for example, and then buy some more silver. We can then redo the same operation, over and over, and, technically, all other things being equal, I could buy myself 55 tons of silver with Nxt's current market cap.
But there would still be Nxt being used, because the Nxt "coins" are not stored in Anon's basement, only the silver is. As a matter of fact, the monetary mass will not have changed at all. That's why it's called a "currency" : It keeps moving.
And, in the end, I could discuss this with Anon and ask him to send me the silver I'm entitled to, and sell it in euros, for example, without  going through the AE again. In & out...


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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #37 on: May 15, 2014, 12:12:34 pm »

I am thinking about squatting this thread for a different kind of analysis.
Lightspeed : If this bothers you, tell me, I'll create another thread.

So here's the deal : I created an Excel sheet to follow Nxt evolution compared to other crypto currencies. Indeed, I figured the best way to value Nxt is in dollars (for now, at least), but that alone doesn't give a clear view of Nxt's real strength.
So, for the past 8 days, I downloaded the top 12 cryptos maket caps to compare their evolutions.
I removed from the graph (but not from the data) the top 2 (bitcoin and litcoin) because their market caps were too big and were killing the very idea of  the graph.

So... here it is :



Nxt is in bold yellow. The calculations are made first my adding up the top 12 market caps, then by calculating each crypto's ratio compared to that total. For example, today's top 12 market cap was $6'278'975'055 at the time of snapshot, and Nxt's was $33'964'554. So Nxt's ratio is 0.54%.

As you can see, Nxt went from 0.39% on the 8th of May to 0.54% today. Ripple went up recently, too, as for Darkcoin. Blackcoin is crashing, though.

I can share the Excel file with its macros, if anyone wants it.



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jl777

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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #38 on: May 15, 2014, 12:13:46 pm »

I have discovered an anomaly
I am hoping some valuation experts can solve this.

With NXT AE it is possible, actually almost certain, that the total value of all the assets will be worth well in excess of a billion NXT

This is in spite of each asset being fairly valued. I know this means that nobody can purchase all the NXT assets, ever, so it is kind of immunity against financial attack on NXT assets, but does anybody else find this a little confusing?

How can NXT have NXT assets such that the sum of the NXT assets values are well in excess of a billion NXT. Wouldnt this cause a dramatic shortage of NXT. Currently we are well below this mark, but I predict in a few months we will cross that threshold. And there is nothing that stops more and more assets from being issued. The total asset values could well exceed 100 billion NXT down the road.

I predict at that point, the scarcity of NXT (assuming 1% of assets per day trade) will lead to a critical shortage of NXT. The "problem" is that the spike in NXT price will attract more asset issuers making the problem worse. It feedsback on itself...

James

I think there is a problem with your reasoning, unless I misunderstand the way the AE works.
The way I see things is that the value of assets is only referred to in Nxt, but it doesn't mean the Nxt equivalent would be drained from the monetary mass.
Let me explain : If I want to buy Anon's silver at market price (around $600 per kilogram), I'll need to spend 20000 Nxt per kg. Let's suppose someone sells that to me. 20k Nxt move from my account to his and I get the corresponding tokens, which are like a proof of my ownership, the silver being stored in Anon's basement (where does he live, by the way ? :D). Once the seller receives his Nxt, he'll exchange them with dollars, for example, and then buy some more silver. We can then redo the same operation, over and over, and, technically, all other things being equal, I could buy myself 55 tons of silver with Nxt's current market cap.
But there would still be Nxt being used, because the Nxt "coins" are not stored in Anon's basement, only the silver is. As a matter of fact, the monetary mass will not have changed at all. That's why it's called a "currency" : It keeps moving.
And, in the end, I could discuss this with Anon and ask him to send me the silver I'm entitled to, and sell it in euros, for example, without  going through the AE again. In & out...
It is not a problem until the percentage of (1 billion NXT) / (total assets value) < (percentage of assets that trade daily)
Maybe daily can be changed to hourly, so we are a long ways away from any NXT scarcity driven price spike. After thinking about it a bit, I realized it is self correcting. Having the formula made it more apparent. The price of NXT will simply increase so that there is enough to deal with the trading liquidity required.

So change my estimate to a few years away from this event

James
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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #39 on: May 15, 2014, 02:09:14 pm »

May 15th 2014: 14:00 UTC - Interim Report. Battering Ram Round 3
**************************************************************************

Current market depth (BTER):

Bids: 1.3 Million NXT
Asks: 0.65 Million NXT

Source: Bitcoinwisdom.

Reach on BTER:

10,000 NXT = 7598 Satoshis
50,000 NXT = 7598
100,000 NXT = 7599
200,000 NXT = 7850
500,000 NXT = 8000

Today's 500,000 cashout does not move the price significantly.

After a fairly brisk couple of days with moments of very high volume trading not seen for a while, we've bounced off the 7500 battle line a couple of times and recoiled back down to about 6900 as expected. So far, there have effectively been 2 large battering rams deployed - one during late Friday trading which briefly wiped the order book out up to 8000 Satoshis and then another rally during Tuesday / Wednesday which again ran out of steam at 7500.

However, ground refuelling appears to be complete and we're back on the runway ready for another go at it.

This time, there is some cause for cautious optimism that the buyers might make it through the 7500-8000 resistance levels as the market is looking slightly more in their favour:

[1] - notice today's market depth figures. For the first time, there is enough buy liquidity on the books to allow major cashouts while only moving the price barely 5 satoshis. Despite this there have been as yet no takers during the preparation of today's commentary

[2] - we're starting from a slightly higher level than the last attempts on Friday and Monday

[3] - sellers appear to have had some of the stuffing knocked out of them during the last 3 days and have pulled back slightly. Only 630,000 is left on the order book  below 8000. This is borne out by moving average convergeance indications which show that sentiment towards the downside is slowing and upside momentum is spooling up its engines.



In addition to market technicals, believe it or not there may have been a few green lights given by the stars:

[4] - the timing for this (potential) rally could not be better. NXT has arrived at the 7500 coalface just as the atlantic sunrise appears over the New York horizon. This is always a good time of the day for NXT. Panicky US traders like to go straight from their beds to their PC's to check if precious holdings have withered and dump the remaining payload to mitigate any overnight damage. The discovery that the plants are alive and well generally propels the "ham & eggs" to a higher priority peg than any late profit taking.

[5] - there is starting to be a similar turnaround in sentiment for the Bitcoin landscape. Resistance has repeatedly held for the last few weeks and consideration is being given to a new breakout over June / July. This is very early days and things can go either way, but often negative sentiment in the bitcoin space can kill off any upwards movement amongst the alts



If in fact if today's cautious optimism turns out to be justified, the next question will be what kind of rally is this ? To answer this, we can consider 3 general types of rally in the crypto-alts market.

a) - feverish price changes having little or no basis in the currency fundamentals and based largely on an increase in media buzz around the coin (often referred to colloquially as "pump and dumps")

b) - temporary price changes based on fundamentals, such as new wallets, interest from merchants or new technological features. There is an initial "spike" in price followed by a slow decay thereafter, often right back down to the starting level

c) - long term valuation revisions which persist well past their point of initiation

So far, since January, NXT has experienced mainly type (b) price revisions. These can be easily correlated to various developmental phases in the history of the NXT network or technology features. Type c) has remained largely elusive, however the market has now revisited the 7000 level enough times that we might begin to consider the possibility. That makes the next few weeks of price evolution probably the most important in the history of the asset.

Top up your teapots and refill your cheese and olive bowls for round 3 !

UPDATE: 18:25 UTC. Things in the Bitcoin space indeed starting to turn around:

http://www.coindesk.com/dutch-payment-service-mollie-takes-bitcoin-10000-merchants/

« Last Edit: May 15, 2014, 05:26:06 pm by lightspeed »
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