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lightspeed

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NxT Market Report
« on: April 28, 2014, 11:45:44 pm »

Hi Folks

Due to popular request, I'm going to start posting the report on this forum as well as the previous 'home' of NXT Market Report. Special thanks to Graviton of nextcoin.org for giving the move his blessing and being so constructive in wishing to see things evolve according to the wider community's preference.

I'll of course continue to post on nextcoin.org where you can find past reports at this thread: https://nextcoin.org/index.php/topic,4467.75.html.

The report can also be found (along with back issues) at the most excellent http://nxter.org which is kept up to date by the prolific 'apenzl' who's site is otherwise packed full of relevant and topical content about NxT.

Finally, you'll notice plenty of 'health warnings' floating around the place. That is because it must never be forgotten that what you are reading is a mix of opinion and analysis. The report's purpose is both to inform and to promote constructive discussion points. It is one view amongst many of the current state of the market accompanied by non-professional, armchair technicals. I recommend absorbing several points of view before making any trading decisions.

As the inimitable Chris Joseph always says, always consult your "financial advisor, lawyer, accountant" etc etc before making any large investments :)

Lightspeed
« Last Edit: April 29, 2014, 01:48:28 am by lightspeed »
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lightspeed

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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #1 on: April 28, 2014, 11:46:33 pm »

April 28th 2014: 18:00 UTC - "I'M A STAKEHOLDER GET ME OUT OF HERE" (BULLISH VERSION)
******************************************************************************

Just a brief update to draw attention to what looks like being a bit of a turnaround in the steady bleed on the markets.

Current market depth (BTER):

Bids: 0.296 Million NXT
Asks: 0.242 Million NXT

Reach on BTER at the moment: (Averages in brackets)

10,000 NXT = 4900 Satoshis
50,000 NXT = 5295
100,000 NXT = 5480
200,000 NXT = 5590
500,000 NXT = Not available

Today's 500.000 cashout would take us to 4217 Satoshis, a drop of only 200 Sats at the time of writing.

******************************************************************************

"I'M A STAKEHOLDER GET ME OUT OF HERE"

During the last few days, despite the favourable fundamentals of this market at the moment, we've seen a significant number of big 5 and 6-figure cashouts.

The question arises of why ? If there's so much good news and activity going around, why is there so much cashing out going on and of such large amounts ? Who would sell a quarter of a million NxT in a single sale at rock bottom prices when we're days away from new technology rollouts and major media coverage ?

The answer lies in the availability of market liquidity.

To most of us, the phenomenon of rich NxT stakeholders is spectator sport only.  On the face of it, it may seem an enviable position to be into one of those 7 figure balances where your calculator tells you you're sitting on a small fortune worth x-hundred's of Bitcoin. However, try realising the amount on the display panel and that trip on Richard Branson's spaceplane suddenly fades back into dreamland.

Unfortunately your calculator is blissfully ignorant of the 'real world' and mistakenly assumes a 100% liquid market. It doesn't need buyers and can cashout your full stash at the price of the last trade. On the other hand, you do and cannot.

Market liquidity is gold dust to a large holder trying to realise their holdings. As the price rises, liquidity becomes more sparse. A bit like climbing a mountain and breathing the rarefied air near the summit. There's simply less of it. What that means is that anyone waiting for the price to rise before cashing out will be constantly disappointed because they can't have both - price and liquidity.

This must have become a frustrating process for some stakeholders over the last few months. They haven't "crashed the market" trying to exit as so many predicted would happen early on in NxT's existence. The reason for that is in no small part due to the exciting ongoing development work that's being done in the currency. At the same time, they would have to crash the price a little bit if they wanted to realise a 6 figure sum when the market is at its more elevated cruising levels. It appears that this is not an attractive option for NxT stakeholders - at least not as much as being able to realise the amount of Bitcoin that their calculator told them they were "due", even if the price is low.

However, during the last week or so, 2 things have converged to give them a break and at the same time possibly encourage a new round of healthy distribution of the currency:

[1] - the price has dropped to a level where there is substantial liquidity available to support large cashouts

[2] - we are entering a phase of "bullish" fundamentals that may be starting to feed that liquidity more sustainably



The "bullish fundamentals" amount to increasing good media coverage in the cryptocurrency blogs, forums and press due to the imminent launch of the NxT asset exchange as well as new 3rd party commercial initiatives being announced and alluded which capitalise on the new blockchain features.

Some large holders therefore, could be slightly more interested in liquidity than price which may explain much of the recent selling spree. Have a look at the 500,000 cashout reach in today's market depth statistics - a sale of 500,000 NxT, (0.05% of the entire NxT money supply) only results in a 200 Satoshi price change. So finally, a large holder can actually realise what their calculator told them they owned without having to destroy the order book and the price with it. This is a very enticing prospect for them.

It is also reassuring for us "market-minions" (apologies to readers who may actually be the subject of todays report) because it shows that there is a price at which large amounts of liquidity become available. Over time, as distribution improves and assuming continued  development of fundamentals, this 'threshold' price should increase. It also shows that NxT's little distribution "problem" may not be a problem at all and may actually be quite containable, albeit it will take a while for propagation to occur.

BUT...THERE'S A LIMIT

Once this 'munching ground' level was reached, 24 hour volume on BTER more than doubled, reaching a peak of about 1.5 Million NxT on Friday 25th April. What's interesting now though is that suddenly, big sells appear to have slowed if not stopped altogether late this afternoon (Mon 28th). For the last couple of hours, Market Report has been watching 200,000 NXT's worth of buy order at 4660 attract about as much interest as a glass of sour milk. Only this morning that would have been gobbled within 10 minutes. Furthermore, trading analysis tools now report the 500,000 buy-in as "out of order book".

These anecdotal observations appear to agree with moving average analysis - the 12 hour MACD histogram today put in its first green block since April 20th, the 4 Hour pushed wide again to the upside after threatening to crossover in nosedive fashion yesterday. The 1 hour crossed decisively over in the last couple of hours, also to the upside.



What does this tell us about the "big holders" (at least the short-term speculative ones) and the "will they dump on us" questions ? The past 48 hours of activity have revealed 3 potential clues with regards to 'whale' trading tactics  in this market:

[1] - there is a 'base munching level" (BML) at which they will generally sell in the absence of any background "excitement". As long as fundamentals are reasonably buoyant, they would rather cash out at high liquidity level than a high price level (where they have to push the price down) because they want to carry their trade out at market price, not below

[2] - if any "background excitement" does appear, they will cease munching and allow the price to rise and liquidity to build, possibly setting in a new high for the 'munching level"

[3] - the longer this cycle repeats, the more their 'munching' ability is diminished. There are 2 factors driving this:

a) - progressively depleted funds due to short term speculative investors realising their gains
b) - for those that remain, increasing confidence in the asset and therefore propensity to hold long term

So we may have seen a bottom for now at precisely 4000 Satoshis this afternoon. From here, all else being equal, favourable media coverage is only going to slowly increase towards the AE launch date. (Of course "all else" is never equal and traders should always be on their guard and inform themselves as fully as possible).



In the meantime, lets see how fresh that order book gets in the next 48 hours.

TODAY'S SPECIAL HEALTH WARNING

Although today's report is fairly bullish, please always be careful, stay as informed as you can and ultimately listen to your own instincts. NxT Market Report presents one view as a stimulous for thought and discussion. There are always valid alternative views that can be considered. According to current market depth, the price looks buyable at below 5000 Satoshis but NEVER throw money at markets in excitement whatever the price and only trade what you can afford to loose since cryptocurrency markets are inherently volatile and can turnaround quickly.

Also bear in mind - investment vehicles are not democracies but this works both ways. It means you can have just as much fun being part of the NxT project and watching / participating in its evolution with a stake of 1000 NxT as you can with 100,000 or 1 million.

Following those simple rules will ensure you generally experience..

...Happy trading !

-------------------------------------- NxT Market Report --- April 28th 2014---- 18:00 UTC ---------------------------------------------------

NxT: 13411915496268579987
« Last Edit: April 29, 2014, 07:49:18 am by lightspeed »
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williamevanl

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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #2 on: April 29, 2014, 03:59:40 am »

Jeez man, I always think these are pretty good but this is really excellent stuff! I'm not sure what you do for a living but you might be in the wrong field.  :D
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MadCow

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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #3 on: April 29, 2014, 04:51:36 am »

Jeez man, I always think these are pretty good but this is really excellent stuff! I'm not sure what you do for a living but you might be in the wrong field.  :D

I agree, first rate!

@lightspeed, you would make a great interview subject for a NXT podcast :)

Keep up the good work!

thanks
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farl4bit

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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #4 on: April 29, 2014, 07:15:47 am »

Great to have you on Nxtforum.org too!  :)

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Jacinto

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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #5 on: April 29, 2014, 07:19:13 am »

Man, i love your market reports!  :D

We should bump this thread!
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BCNext son.

farl4bit

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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #6 on: April 29, 2014, 07:20:30 am »

I made it Sticky!  :)
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Fatih87SK

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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #7 on: April 29, 2014, 07:28:56 am »

Always fun to read your market reports.
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zorke

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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #8 on: April 29, 2014, 09:29:06 am »

WOW thanks, it seems to me that you know what you are doing and talking about!!  :)
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landomata

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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #9 on: April 29, 2014, 10:01:00 am »

 :o really great market commentary.

Graviton

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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #10 on: April 29, 2014, 10:33:25 am »

Quote
anyone waiting for the price to rise before cashing out will be constantly disappointed because they can't have both - price and liquidity

With ~20 yrs of trading behind I have never before seen this fundamental fact stated on your face so coherently.

First class, well no, business class I would say!
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Fatih87SK

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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #11 on: April 29, 2014, 10:38:16 am »

Good idea to place at our new Bitcointalk thread?
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TimmyD

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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #12 on: April 29, 2014, 10:57:16 am »

very good read indeed thanks
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ThomasVeil

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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #13 on: April 30, 2014, 10:11:43 am »

Love it too. Very comprehensible yet sound analysis - without the tea leaf reading you see usually everywhere in TA.

One thought about this one: Is it sure that this situation is unique to NXT? It seems to me the BTC market moved very similarly. We seemed to have reached a bottom, with even China-news not doing much anymore.

Thanks for sharing it. Curious to read more.
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IveBeenBit

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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #14 on: April 30, 2014, 07:25:21 pm »

Subscribe.
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ShawnLeary

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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #15 on: May 04, 2014, 07:41:18 pm »

We need more ;)  Great work LS.
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rlh

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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #16 on: May 08, 2014, 01:52:57 pm »

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Jacinto

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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #17 on: May 09, 2014, 07:24:48 am »

We need an update!!!  ;D
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lightspeed

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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #18 on: May 09, 2014, 11:59:43 pm »

May 10th 2014: 12:00 UTC - Interim Report. Cool Off Period (Hold your fire)
**************************************************************************

Current market depth (BTER):

Bids: 1.4 Million NXT
Asks: 0.5 Million NXT

Source: Bitcoinwisdom

Current market depth (Cryptsy):

Bids: 0.19 Million NXT
Asks: 0.035 Million NXT

Source: cryptocoincharts

Reach on BTER at the moment:

10,000 NXT = 6998 Satoshis
50,000 NXT = 7176
100,000 NXT = 7192
200,000 NXT = 7590 (4998)
500,000 NXT = Not available

This evening's 500,000 cashout takes us to 6500.

Prognosis: We are in a cool-off period in the uptrend. This may last between a few hours to a couple of days during which indications suggest that we might settle in the 6000 to 7000 satoshi range for a rest. If profit taking by NxT speculators is excessive we may retest the 5000 resistance at the odd candle bottom. The 30 minute MACD (which for NXT currently has between a 6 and 12 hour cycle) just pushed slightly wider to the downside on an already divergent trend (to the downside) which suggests an incoming correction.

However, with NXT being a very slow and low liquidity market, it's unlikely that the correction will have enough of a spread to present opportunities for accumulation to those other than the most experienced traders (That means more experienced than your current market commentator).

4 Hour Chart (Each candle is 4 hours wide)



Convergeance-divergeance moving average indicators agree that we may be not heading up as fast. At the worst case, a correction is suggested but like the high cirrus clouds warning of a distant warm front, it may be a few hours away:

The correction may be anywhere between a slowing of the uptrend to a temporary down trend (expected) before stabilising possibly Sunday or Monday.

4hr MACD Histogram




« Last Edit: May 10, 2014, 10:43:11 am by lightspeed »
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yassin54

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Re: NxT Market Report
« Reply #19 on: May 10, 2014, 09:48:15 am »

Great Job!!!!!
thanks.  :-*
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