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Stark Industries

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Business Plan
« on: September 29, 2014, 05:55:21 am »

Contents

Owners of NxtPoker
Competitive Analysis
NxtPoker Competitive Advantage
Market Analysis
Marketing Strategy
Marketing Plan
Customer Acquisition
Valuation
Business Model
Gamification
ROI why you should own tokens
Technical specifications
Oath & Bylaws






Owners of NxtPoker


Once the tokens have been distributed to donors, the organization as a whole belongs to Nxt community token holders, and token holders in the broader crypto community. Not only is NxtPoker DAO owned by the community of token holders, they actually influence and direct improvements to NxtPoker initiatives by supporting ideas and plans that match the nxtpoker bylaws or rules. Board members execute the outcomes of votes on issues or initiatives voted on by token holders, which had previously been distilled down to a few options, through a discussion process with the community or between all board members. Board members also serve the community by reviewing performance, token payouts, compensations to workers and devs, discussions and revolving issues, and other responsibilities in the rules (bylaws).

http://edge1.pokerlistings.com/assets/photos/PS-market-share.PNG
sources
http://www.pokerlistings.com/amaya-shareholders-approve-pokerstars-deal-what-happens-next-46981
http://edge1.pokerlistings.com/assets/photos/PS-market-share.PNG
http://www.bet-at-home.ag/Default.aspx?page=4&lang=en
http://www.bet-at-home.ag/content/bet-at-home/images/balkenundlinien_gl%C3%BCcksspielmarkt_en.jpg
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disruptive_innovation
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/29/news-views-gossip/empowering-game-poker-its-players-through-use-cryptography-decentralization-1437733/
http://www.liquidpoker.net/poker-forum/926209/The_Rake_:(.html





Competitive Analysis

   
Analyzing the top competitor: pokerstars strengths and developments
      -Huge marketshare and dominant presence, strong brand
      -Launched real money wagering Dec 2001
      - 50 million registered users on its servers according to a wikipeadia article (2012)
                        -1.4 billion in annual revenues (2012)
      -1000+ employees
      -Uses famous personalities in marketing (hockey players, race car drivers, actors: jason alexander)
      -acquired competitor full tilt poker  $731 million ( july 2012))
      -acquired by Amaya Gamin Group $4.9 billion cash (August 1, 2014) : http://www.pokerlistings.com/amaya-shareholders-approve-pokerstars-deal-what-happens-next-46981
      -Gaming Licenses: isle of man, Denmark, France, Belgium, Italy, Estonia, Spain, european union license granted in 2012, operates illegally in the us due to Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006
      -jdsfcv
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PokerStars
      http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-11250835: see booming business
      http://www.forbes.com/2010/02/10/internet-gambling-pokerstars-business-beltway-pokerstars.html



Pokerstars Weaknesses

Above we have enormous positive information for pokerstars but there are problems and weaknesses : the industry is matured, overgrown and ripe, festering with ripe boils gorging on the demise of desperate unfortunate poker players of all skills and sizes. The players are screaming for help and the industry is ripe for disruption by better tech. Outlined below are some glaring weaknesses
   -susceptible to government coercion and shutdown
   -heavy government  fees taxes
   -excessive rakes / cost to play
   -payout problems
      http://www.cardschat.com/f54/pokerstars-cashout-problems-111727/
      http://www.bankrollmob.com/forum.asp?mode=thread&id=296772
      http://forum.parttimepoker.com/stakers-discussion/843088-pokerstars-reject-cashout-need-help.html
      http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/32/beginners-questions/pokerstars-cash-out-surprise-1250574/

   -Problem with random generator and shuffling algorithm http://www.cigital.com/papers/download/developer_gambling.php
      hilarious  comical take   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfQBhbRiqnE#t=781
   -cheating
      Blatant cheating : Absolute poker, ultimate bet : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cereus_Poker_Network
      non-random card dealing/house employed players or bots  http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/blogs/tunisiz/DOES-POKERSTARS-CHEAT
      collusion / team play(from forums)
              http://www.pocketfives.com/f12/poker-stars-rigged-facts-692009/Research on pokerstars rigging Strange betting patterns, fake accounts, bad beats, unbelievable plays and rigged flops to create action.
      http://www.onlinepoker.net/poker-news/general-poker-news/online-poker-rigged-wsop-winner/6801      http://www.pocketfives.com/f12/poker-stars-rigged-facts-692009/
      http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/28/internet-poker/company-cheat-pokerstars-1041396/
      http://www.pocketfives.com/f12/poker-stars-has-rigged-338248/
      http://www.pocketfives.com/f12/poker-stars-rigged-facts-692009/
      http://pokerstars-rigged-scam.blogspot.com/
      http://www.pokerstrategy.com/forum/thread.php?threadid=219613
      http://www.pocketfives.com/f12/pokerstars-rng-absolute-discrace-672338/
      discontent on pokerstars rigging : http://www.pokerscout.com/AllReviews.aspx?id=1&pg=1
      www.change.org/en-GB/petitions/british-government-carry-out-a-full-audit-of-online-poker-sites
      Speculation on pokerstars rigging: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/25/probability/pokerstars-rigged-447349/
      https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1487.0
      http://www.liquidpoker.net/poker-forum/926209/The_Rake_:(.html

really there there too many incidences to count, the list could go on for eons.


Key note
   in 2007, a massive scandal occurred at Absolute Poker where a superuser was exploiting a glitch to see everyone else’s hole cards. It won a $1000 buy in tournament by doing this. Ultimate    Bet was also found to have its owner Russ Hamilton super using away thousands of dollars from his players

   In 2011, the US Government seized control of US players accounts and funds on PokerStars and FullTilt. Shortly after this happened, major poker site Full Tilt Poker was caught out using player    funds to pay its owners, instead of keeping them separate, as is standard practice

         http://pokerfacenews.com/could-it-be-that-online-poker-is-rigged-the-verdict/
   https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1487.0

      
   
Nxtpoker strengths

   -Cryptographically provable random number/card dealing/shuffling
   -Semi instant Player payout satisfaction
   -Very inexpensive for Players
   -Decentralized, funded and backed by a community
   -95% collusion deterrent at high capacity
   -Global reach
   -Impervious to shutdown, taxation or government coercion
   -absence of centralized trust
   -private/ pseudonymous
   


   weaknesses
   Unestablished brand
   Brand new
   
   
It is key that the organization structure, community and funding help to overcome the weakness so as to compete and excel against establish incumbents





Market analysis


According to world poker tour, more people play poker than billiards, golf or tennis. For a closer to home correlation there are probably more poker players than reddit users. Poker is now the third most-watched sport on cable TV, behind only car racing and football. This lends credence to the maturity and abundance of the market. There are more than 60 million poker players in the us and more than 100 million worldwide.
Now of the 60 million us poker players only about 15 million play for real money online regularly (2.6% of adult population), about 58% of them are under 35 years of age and 76% are male . Globally the numbers could be extrapolated to arrive at a modest conclusion that about double: 30 million people worldwide play pocket online for real money. Making a super modest assumption that only about 30 million users are available to Nxtpoker which is 20 million less than Pokerstar's user base (also ignoring the fact that NxtPoker will expand the market due to its disruptive nature) It is not far fetch to make a modest user adoption projection assumption of:

First year :          1.2 million users
Second Year :   4.2 million users
Third Year :        7.2 million users


These extremely modest  numbers are only possible of course if there is adequate initial funding, community support and structured organization orchestrating and streamlining development. I will make a case for the numbers with a realistic worst possible data point in the marketing section. Read on.

Key note
   According to poker player research 5% of american players said legislation made them play less and a lot of them switched or are looking for alternatives
   also players greatest concern is about Fairness is that they might be playing against bots and among colluding entities
   another biggest complain is slow pay outs
   more than half of players play both cash games and tournaments



sources
http://www.worldpokertour.com/About_us/FAQ.aspx
http://pokerplayersresearch.com/ToplineFindings.aspx
http://www.pokerlistings.com/amaya-shareholders-approve-pokerstars-deal-what-happens-next-46981
http://theppa.org/resources/facts/
http://www.scribd.com/doc/23533788/Who-Plays-Poker-PPA-Survey
http://www.newsweek.com/going-all-online-poker-117991
http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoins-gambling-boom-just-getting-started/






Marketing strategy & Plan

In any marketing endeavor , as a basis it is always important to understand positioning in the market and how it fairs against all competition, in order to focus on the unique attributes of the offering. This is a bases and a starting point of our marketing campaign. It is why customers would choose to ignore switching costs to test out a brand new platform. For us it is simply because NxtPoker will provide the: "Best gaming experience enabled by fair provable level playing field, provable fair RNG and lowest tournament entry costs". Now that we know have a succinct statement that sets us part from everything on the market it is time to take a look at some quick case studies:


Quick Case studies tournament earnings for pokerstars

Case 1 pokerstars tournament
December 27, 2009
Players buy-in: $1
first prize: $50,000
number of registrants : 200,000 players
profit earnings : ~$200,000


Case2 pokerstars sunday million
March 4, 2011
Players buy-in: $200 + $15 = $215
first prize: ~ $1.1 million
number of registrants : 59,128 players
profits earnings : ~ $12,712,520 million


Case3 : pokerstars micro-millions
December 4, 2011
Players buy-in : $0.11 to $22 (average : $11.055)
first prize/ prize pool: $140,000 / $5 million
number of registrants : 1,294,883 players
profit earnings : ~ $140,536,908 million



As you can see the poker market is very lucrative. But to get in front of the right audience would require a lot of marketing ingenuity, capital and unique value proposition in this competitive market. But the payoff will be extremely rewarding in the form of huge profit margin's not only from current tournaments and profits from reoccurring customers looking forward to the next tournament but everyday cash games and other optional fees.
Taking a page from pokerstars, we could have our brand of tournament offering: Nxtday millions or NxtMicro-millions or Nxtday Sunday. Of course these are arbitrary tournament branding ideas, it doesn't take away from the fact that there is an opportunity to capitalize and the opportunity is huge for every token holder.


http://www.pokernews.com/news/2012/06/pokerstars-guarantees-5-million-micromillions-ii-tournament-12940.htm
http://www.pokerstarsblog.com/sm/2011/bdbeatslayer-wins-sunday-million-5th-ann-079075.html
 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PokerStars#History
http://www.pokerlistings.com/amaya-shareholders-approve-pokerstars-deal-what-happens-next-46981


Below is a rough plan to hasten customer adoption and increase brand awareness. This plan will be refined by specialized marketing/business members of the board for full effectiveness. Most of the of the marketing plan items will be outsourced to professional marketing and branding firms.


   Plan
   Incentized Referrals    
   inbound Marketing
      content marketing in-house and outsourced (http://www.socialradius.com/services.php?id=services_summary)
         optimization, keyword strategy, quality content etc
   SEO and domain/ Keyword research and focus/ blog authority strategy in house and out
   Performance based affiliate marketing and plan CPS/CPA
   2nd tier pay per click engine marketing (bidvertizer, adbrite etc)
   Infogragraphics visual presentation for quick sharing and content digestion
   Social media management, viral promotions (prizes, games, contests) and campaigns (http://www.socialradius.com/services.php?id=services_summary)
   Press releases and public relations (http://www.socialradius.com/services.php?id=services_summary)
         Email marketing / list management
   Press releases and content syndication
   Video marketing(youtube/vimeo)
      video explainers
      Video tutorial for Nxtpoker and Nxt
   Compelling sales funnel
      Compelling landing pages
      Call to action landing pages(for software download)
      Education/informtive and bief to digital currency
   Analytics and conversion tracking
   Help pages and poker player support
   




Costumer acquisition


As promised, let's justify some of our assumed customer acquisition numbers using one of the lesser unproductive means through a second tier search engine or site :CPM. For the uninitiated CPM means cost per mile. It means the amount of dollars that are charged per 1000 views. it is also called "cost per view" cpv. So Here go :

the average conversion rate for related gaming industry advertisement rage from 2% to 10% on average
conversion rate means how many people actually click through to download and use a product out of a sample of 1000 people for instance.
if 2 people out of 100 download, thats 2%
if 5 thats 5% and so on

there are several factors that can affect conversion rate including value offering, message etc..lets say NxtPoker ads has a worst than average of 1% conversion rate, we can calculate how many customers who will be using out product each month based on how much we are willing to spend.

using reddit at $5 per 5000 views
$10,000 will yield 10 million views at 1% conversion rate = 100,000 users per month * 12 gives the assumed 1,200,000 users numbers for that year

additional yearly projections could be extrapolated using similar metrics.
For the second and third year
First year :          1.2 million users
Second Year :   4.2 million users
Third Year :        7.2 million users



Now its important to note that these are rough figures, based on the worst possible source of traffic, so the numbers will most likely be several orders more, due to the NxtPoker unique value proposition , other viral marketing techniques, messaging combined with a stunning sales funnel process. The cost per acquisition of a customer will most likely be some order of magnitudes higher anywhere between $2 to $20, we could say the same for the actual customers acquired. I used the example to illustrate that the goal to achieve customers is very possible as long as we have the wining product and the actual funding and incentive to motivate players to sign up in droves.




reddit
at $5 minimum, 5000 views per $5 at 2% standard industry conversion rate using CPM
http://www.reddit.com/advertising

average cost per click : $2 - 5 at 20 % conversion rate work
https://www.namepros.com/threads/poker-site-wants-to-advertise-on-my-site.666496/
http://www.pokeraffiliatelistings.com/forums/general-poker-affiliate-forum/4982-how-much-cpc-would-you-expect.html

average conversion rate by industry
http://www.myclicks.org.uk/startups101/case-studies/ppc-online-gambling-cantor
http://klientboost.com/adwords/what-is-the-average-conversion-rate-for-ppc/
http://www.wordstream.com/blog/ws/2014/03/17/what-is-a-good-conversion-rate#.
http://www.casinoaffiliateprograms.com/blog/ppc-trends-for-casino-affiliates/

 buy sell rough ad sample poker untargeted ad placement: 
https://buysellads.com/buy/search/id/812381/ts/1410908464#view-239343
https://buysellads.com/buy/gaming#view-27200
https://buysellads.com/buy/cryptocurrency
https://www.reddit.com/advertising



http://www.wordstream.com/popular-keywords/poker-keywords
Adwords restricts poker type advertisements https://support.google.com/adwordspolicy/answer/6018017?rd=1

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ps7bB9-ksMY

http://www.smartinsights.com/digital-marketing-strategy/online-value-proposition/testing-value-propositions/

http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/smartwork/201004/vision-and-mission-whats-the-difference-and-why-does-it-matter

http://www.scienceofleads.com/course-on-creating-a-modern-marketing-plan/

« Last Edit: September 29, 2014, 01:27:29 pm by Stark Industries »
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Stark Industries

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Re: Business Plan
« Reply #1 on: September 29, 2014, 05:55:52 am »

Pricing / Valuation model

We get to the valuation ranges by calculating a fully distributed value and estimating a companies implied value through analysis of similar companies operating and trading metrics. So in essence by applying multiples derived from comparable companies to similar but superior DAO/ App metrics we can extrapolate the range of initial company valuation. We could even determine value by estimating market capture, marketing, potential conversion rates and churn based on superior technology and incredible value proposition to poker players






Business Model

We need to understand the poker business models if we are to do any kind of comparison. There are general 3 basic business models in poker: cash games  tournaments and fees.
Cash games : allow you to sit at a table, create your own private or public table then play with your Nxt to improve your winnings over the long term
Tournament : they come in all shape and forms and can be customized.  Tournaments allow you to buy in to a tournament series for a set fee, for a chance to win the grand prize or other several tiered prizes. Usually the first prize winner wins 1/3 of the prize pool.
Fees: These represent arbitrary fees for extra privileges i.e private tables for friends, hiding hand histories etc

Moving on,  for a more concrete example based on sales, assuming players see the NxtPoker as the holy grail and fully participate in the tournament offering, we can use an assumed modest churn rate from our projected acquired users to analyze what would happen assuming we offered a similar event to the pokerstars micro millions . Therefore we can ignore very lucrative cash games and focus on more predictable outcomes of tournament earnings.



Scenario

By june 2015 we have acquired 600,000 users at a 20% churn rate meaning 20% of our users not interested in the tournament. That leaves us with 480,000 users in the tournament hoping to win one of the prizes in the pool


NxtMicro-Millions Scenario

June 1, 2015
Players buy-in : $2 to $8 (average $5)
first prize / prize pool: $350,000 (Nxt) / ($650,000 will be shared among several participants runner ups)
number of registrants : 480,000
profit earnings : 480,000 x $5  = $2,400,000 in a single day event !


Of course the figures above are by no means an accurate representation of future events. What we could do is estimate based on similar companies operating and trading metrics then deduct value several other of magnitudes over, but still considering the stage of the product, vision, organization, funding and potential if a solid team where to continue to push the project forward.



Valuation

assuming pokerstars  is ~200 times for valuable than nxtpoker with a demo client and a community that believes in the vision 4.5 billion / 200
between 10 to 25 million dollar valuation
20833.3333333btc - 52083.3333333btc
Max 0.000521 per token
Min 0.000221 per token
100,000,000 total tokens

Of course other serious financial analyst are welcome to provide more accurate analysis that we could use to start a constructive conversation to fix any err in logic. This should also be analyzed by the business/ financial arms of the NxtPoker Board



Key note
   According to poker player research 5% of american players said legislation made them play less and a lot of them switched or are looking for alternatives
   also players greatest concern is about Fairness is that they might be playing against bots and among colluding entities
   another biggest complain is slow pay outs
   more than half of players play both cash games and tournaments

http://www.buyinpoker.com/poker/what-is-rakeback-in-online-poker
http://sixteenventures.com/saas-churn-rate
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Churn_rate
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PokerStars
http://macabacus.com/valuation/methods
http://pokerplayersresearch.com/ToplineFindings.aspx





Gamification
Gamification will be employed to improve customer retention, loyalty and overall churn rates. Gamification is a system of using achievements like badges, leader boards  and rankings to eventually reward the top and most frequent users with several other in game benefits. It has been statistically shown that participation can increase 70% when participants in systems appreciates the benefits behind the game mechanics.  Benefits can range from monetary to exclusive in game privileges i.e: hiding hand histories, high rake backs and free private tables. Although it is not designed yet, it will serve as one of the key strategies to maintain long term dominance in the industry.

http://www.buyinpoker.com/poker/what-is-rakeback-in-online-poker
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gamification
http://www.pokerstars.com/poker/tournaments/leader-board/





ROI: Why you should invest in NxtPoker


The total value of NxtPoker 100 million tokens relative to token holder holdings are not dilutable. This is very important to understand, what this means is that, no matter the size of the donation pools, you can still expect a decent ROI. Also understand that aside from the privilege to play a part in owning and controlling the NxtPoker DAO, you earn profits on a weekly or monthly time interval TBD by the NxtPoker board. Last point is that the value of these tokens will likely appreciate over time in addition to perpetually generating profits (like forging on steroids forever!).

As long as we get adequate funding, board and the required other dev hires in place, this will most likely be one of the least risky investments in the crypto sphere. The NxtPoker DAO will backed by a sizable fund, organized expert board of executors and problem solvers, community of token owners, workers and devs with a constant release cycle. Every fund spent is transparent and will be authorized by another trusted known third party entity, using btc multi-sig, or in the case of nxt; Phasing features. The larger the fund the better the chances of success. A bigger fund gives us the chance to compete directly with pokerstars on official product launch and flaunt our unique features  and cash pool prize incentives to their users. Subsequently the more users we get, the more lucrative the returns and therefore profits creating a positive cash flow cycle perpetually.

Its important to note that the organization caters to players first, then to the token holders interest, all this by highly incentivizing Nxtpoker Devs. NxtPoker DAO is  structured enable the creating of  healthy playground for poker players, which will in turn make sure that all token holders can generate multiples of initial investment month after month perpetually, potentially becoming one of the most lucrative opportunities in the crypto sphere. As with anything in this space though, nothing is guaranteed and there are inherent risks. Thats why forming an extensive plan to limit exposure to these risk is necessary.

The primary concern concern is to get NxtPoker to market and we are confident that we will as long as we get the sufficient funding and structures in place. So the logical progression is as followed :

capital => rapid product development ==> Rapid release cycle==> Beta ==. production launch ==> increase in demand for nxt and volume ==> increase in NxtPoker token value ==> increase in profit payouts to NxtPoker token holders




Oath & Bylaws
TBD

« Last Edit: September 29, 2014, 06:03:51 am by Stark Industries »
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BitcoinForumator

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Re: Business Plan
« Reply #2 on: September 29, 2014, 10:19:59 pm »

For 10-25 Million $ you better come up with a client that's on par with the Pokerstars client.

Actually, nevermind the investment, you need an outstanding client. You can't top Pokerstars, but it better be very decent to compete.
« Last Edit: September 29, 2014, 10:29:59 pm by BitcoinForumator »
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Stark Industries

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Re: Business Plan
« Reply #3 on: October 04, 2014, 09:57:39 pm »

If you don not understand the vision, industry,  market or valuation ignore the thread or do a professional fair value assessment based on market analysis and present the results.  Negative sentiment is of no consequence here…and the obvious point is to provide a better experience than players are already used too…Last this is a community driven project with some merit going to pioneers so help out or ignore…
read more and learn more :  https://nxtforum.org/stark-industries-%28nxtdice%29/

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