elective-stereophonic
elective-stereophonic
Shark Report - sharktales and other musings
Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Advanced search  

News:

Latest Nxt Client: Nxt 1.11.15

Pages: 1 ... 4 5 [6] 7 8 ... 19  All

Author Topic: Shark Report - sharktales and other musings  (Read 57973 times)

jl777

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Karma: +718/-123
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 6170
    • View Profile
Re: Shark Report - sharktales and other musings
« Reply #100 on: June 09, 2014, 05:39:51 am »

Back home, so I will be able to be online all the time again.

Seems like I missed a crazy week. Even after the pullback, NXT is still up significantly from before I left. Due to sharkfund0 having ~30% not in NXT, the overall value in NXT has dropped below 10000 NXT :(
However, it has gained significantly in BTC terms and even more in fiat terms.

The fund started with around 1400 BTC capital, now it is ~1800 BTC for a 28% gain
In fiat terms the fund started at around $800K and now it is $1167K for a 45% gain

I aim to get back to 10000 NXT per sharkfund0 by more actively managing the NXT balance. Another idea I had was to actively make a market in NXT on the exchanges. The gain would be incremental, but it would stabilize the market price. This big rollercoaster is very stressful and I prefer a more gradual change in prices

Anyway, I repriced the sharkfund0 to 9000/9100 NXT

The DRK/NXT ratio is getting close to 100:1, which I think is a critical floor. Since I sold at >250:1, even the current 140:1 is a good gain. All that is needed is a bit of a NXT bump and DRK drop and the 100:1 will be hit. I am seeing peercoin trading opposite of NXT, so it looks like money is being circulated between PPC, DRK and NXT.

James
Logged
There are over 1000 people in SuperNET slack! http://slackinvite.supernet.org/ automatically sends you an invite

I am just a simple C programmer

Djinou94

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Karma: +3/-5
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 193
    • View Profile
Re: Shark Report - sharktales and other musings
« Reply #101 on: June 12, 2014, 11:51:09 pm »

Hehe just bought 0.5 Shark asset
I'm in your team Wolong777
Logged

jl777

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Karma: +718/-123
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 6170
    • View Profile
Re: Shark Report - sharktales and other musings
« Reply #102 on: June 14, 2014, 10:47:24 am »

Market's been pretty quiet
Did pick up a small amount via nxtltcn
You would think that gaining ~200BTC over several days is a nice 10% gain and it would be in terms of BTC, but with NXT continuing to rise against BTC, the net effect is a actually a slight loss in terms of NXT. This because NXT went up more than 10% and not all of the non-NXT sharkfund0 holdings went up as much as NXT.

Due to the significant non-NXT holdings, this volatility was expected. It is hurting the NXT based performance now, but when the trend reverses, it will do the opposite. It is like a boat riding up and down on the waves, its specific position at any given point and time needs to be balanced with the phase of the wave. So we need to find out the average position and as long as that is going up, we are OK.

This means until we have a NXT downtrend, we wont be able to tell exactly where we are, and even then it will be an approximation.

BTC value: ~2000 BTC
sharkfund0: 1993.3575 outstanding (10000 - 8'006.6425)
~0.99667875 BTC per sharkfund0
NXT @ .0001125 -> 8859 NXT per sharkfund0

New quote is 8800/8859

James

Logged
There are over 1000 people in SuperNET slack! http://slackinvite.supernet.org/ automatically sends you an invite

I am just a simple C programmer

MJ79

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Karma: +5/-0
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 92
    • View Profile
Re: Shark Report - sharktales and other musings
« Reply #103 on: June 14, 2014, 08:46:39 pm »

Did you make any changes to the BTC assets or are those still pretty much the same?
Logged

jl777

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Karma: +718/-123
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 6170
    • View Profile
Re: Shark Report - sharktales and other musings
« Reply #104 on: June 14, 2014, 08:57:02 pm »

Did you make any changes to the BTC assets or are those still pretty much the same?
no big moves, mostly just market fluctuations.

MRO has doubled recently https://www.poloniex.com/exchange/btc_xmr
I did manage to pick up a bit more at around .002, but not much to make a big impact
DRK is making a flag pattern and if they can get the masternode payments fixed, should go up from current base

The key is to not panic, but to also act fast when something significant changes.
Also, I dont actually have that much BTC as I am concerned about the 51% situation. Most of the "BTC" assets are in anon related crypto. I just wait for the inevitable pump that will happen to cash out when it is mispriced

Patience, then pounce

James
Logged
There are over 1000 people in SuperNET slack! http://slackinvite.supernet.org/ automatically sends you an invite

I am just a simple C programmer

frohlocke

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Karma: +27/-13
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 494
    • View Profile
Re: Shark Report - sharktales and other musings
« Reply #105 on: June 14, 2014, 09:01:09 pm »

Sell side seems not to be correct.
Logged

jl777

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Karma: +718/-123
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 6170
    • View Profile
Re: Shark Report - sharktales and other musings
« Reply #106 on: June 14, 2014, 09:13:34 pm »

Sell side seems not to be correct.
ooops,I put the wrong side it
It confuses me sometimes that the GUI shows bids on the same side you have to put in the asks
fixing
...
fixed

James
Logged
There are over 1000 people in SuperNET slack! http://slackinvite.supernet.org/ automatically sends you an invite

I am just a simple C programmer

MJ79

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Karma: +5/-0
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 92
    • View Profile
Re: Shark Report - sharktales and other musings
« Reply #107 on: June 14, 2014, 09:17:19 pm »

Now it shows both on the sell side  ;D
Logged

MJ79

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Karma: +5/-0
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 92
    • View Profile
Re: Shark Report - sharktales and other musings
« Reply #108 on: June 14, 2014, 09:21:17 pm »

Guess you corrected it already but we just had a slow block, all seems correct now :)
Logged

godt

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Karma: +9/-0
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 90
    • View Profile
Re: Shark Report - sharktales and other musings
« Reply #109 on: June 15, 2014, 01:23:27 pm »

Maybe stupid questions.

How you transferring shark NXT to BTC ? via exchange or ... ?
Should I invest in sharkfund0 if I am huge NXT believer(in long) ?
Logged

jl777

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Karma: +718/-123
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 6170
    • View Profile
Re: Shark Report - sharktales and other musings
« Reply #110 on: June 15, 2014, 06:12:31 pm »

Maybe stupid questions.

How you transferring shark NXT to BTC ? via exchange or ... ?
Should I invest in sharkfund0 if I am huge NXT believer(in long) ?
yes, there are several centralized exchanges holding some of the non-NXT holdings, but the majority is in DRK and XCP cold wallets. Currently sharkfund0 has a bit more than one third in non-NXT holdings, and with everything having volatile prices, the overall value will change on a regular basis. If you are OK with such volatility, then sharkfund0 will get you the same investment performance that I personally get since I have put the vast majority of my NXT into sharkfund0.

If you are big believer in NXT long term and just want to buy and hold, then I have made jl777hodl for that
http://nxtreporting.com/?a=18323612891099439610&c=USD

You can see it holds many assets across the entire spectrum of available NXT assets. My view is that NXT based assets will perform like leveraged NXT and most of jl777hodl assets are NXT based assets, though it does have some that are not. So when NXT price goes up, jl777hodl might go down and vice versa. This actually has the effect of reducing the overall volatility, so if you allocated your long term hold portfolio:
40% in NXT, 40% in jl777hodl, 20% in sharkfund0

it should rise along with NXT, but the overall value should be less volatile. Now since jl777hodl is thinly traded, the price could be volatile, but if you just looked at the Total balance in the upper right of the URL above and divide by 10 million, you will have the value of jl777hodl.

My investment performance has been pretty good so far, but of course, no guarantees that I will be able to repeat the massive gains again with sharkfund0. I am managing sharkfund0 to maximize gains while protecting the capital base. After all a lot of it is my capital!

Maybe someone that models risk/reward profiles could go into more depth on the best balance to create the least volatile portfolio that will still track NXT price gains

James
Logged
There are over 1000 people in SuperNET slack! http://slackinvite.supernet.org/ automatically sends you an invite

I am just a simple C programmer

Wanok

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Karma: +0/-0
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 8
    • View Profile
Re: Shark Report - sharktales and other musings
« Reply #111 on: June 15, 2014, 10:53:39 pm »

Hi James,
could you give insight into how exactly the value of jl777hodl is derived? I suppose the assets would need to represent some form of right to delivery or ownership of the underlying assets held in jl777hodl?
Logged

jl777

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Karma: +718/-123
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 6170
    • View Profile
Re: Shark Report - sharktales and other musings
« Reply #112 on: June 15, 2014, 11:04:30 pm »

Hi James,
could you give insight into how exactly the value of jl777hodl is derived? I suppose the assets would need to represent some form of right to delivery or ownership of the underlying assets held in jl777hodl?
There isnt a mechanism to do this right now, but I guess that would solve the issue. Great idea!

If someone wants to pay the transfer fees for all the assets (~20 NXT) and can wait until I either automate the process or do it manually, for a large enough redemption I can convert the jl777hodl for the corresponding amount of its holdings. I think if I sent the redeemed amount to the genesis acct, it all balances out. There will also be rounding issues as many assets dont have decimals, so maybe some sort of horse trading at equivalent market price to make it all balance out. Anyway, many details to sort but all very possible.

Can somebody verify this for me?

Since this is a one way operation and time consuming, I dont want it to be happening all the time. The key point is that jl777hodl represents its prorata share of its holdings. So, if anybody wants to redeem a large amount of jl777hodl, just PM me and we can work out the details.

James
Logged
There are over 1000 people in SuperNET slack! http://slackinvite.supernet.org/ automatically sends you an invite

I am just a simple C programmer

Wanok

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Karma: +0/-0
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 8
    • View Profile
Re: Shark Report - sharktales and other musings
« Reply #113 on: June 16, 2014, 12:25:48 am »

Hi James,
could you give insight into how exactly the value of jl777hodl is derived? I suppose the assets would need to represent some form of right to delivery or ownership of the underlying assets held in jl777hodl?
There isnt a mechanism to do this right now, but I guess that would solve the issue. Great idea!

If someone wants to pay the transfer fees for all the assets (~20 NXT) and can wait until I either automate the process or do it manually, for a large enough redemption I can convert the jl777hodl for the corresponding amount of its holdings. I think if I sent the redeemed amount to the genesis acct, it all balances out. There will also be rounding issues as many assets dont have decimals, so maybe some sort of horse trading at equivalent market price to make it all balance out. Anyway, many details to sort but all very possible.

Can somebody verify this for me?

Since this is a one way operation and time consuming, I dont want it to be happening all the time. The key point is that jl777hodl represents its prorata share of its holdings. So, if anybody wants to redeem a large amount of jl777hodl, just PM me and we can work out the details.

James
I fully agree with you that the standard way of getting in and out of the asset should be via trading it on the asset exchange. And the transparency of http://nxtreporting.com/?a=NXT-2AHU-UXZW-K9Q2-HENLW&c=USD and the option for justified (i.e. covering tx costs and other expenses) redemption give it a well defined value.  So thank you for clarifying. It seems to be a nice investment option to get exposure to a variety of NXT assets.
« Last Edit: June 16, 2014, 12:29:17 am by Wanok »
Logged

jl777

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Karma: +718/-123
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 6170
    • View Profile
Re: Shark Report - sharktales and other musings
« Reply #114 on: June 16, 2014, 12:52:12 am »

Hi James,
could you give insight into how exactly the value of jl777hodl is derived? I suppose the assets would need to represent some form of right to delivery or ownership of the underlying assets held in jl777hodl?
There isnt a mechanism to do this right now, but I guess that would solve the issue. Great idea!

If someone wants to pay the transfer fees for all the assets (~20 NXT) and can wait until I either automate the process or do it manually, for a large enough redemption I can convert the jl777hodl for the corresponding amount of its holdings. I think if I sent the redeemed amount to the genesis acct, it all balances out. There will also be rounding issues as many assets dont have decimals, so maybe some sort of horse trading at equivalent market price to make it all balance out. Anyway, many details to sort but all very possible.

Can somebody verify this for me?

Since this is a one way operation and time consuming, I dont want it to be happening all the time. The key point is that jl777hodl represents its prorata share of its holdings. So, if anybody wants to redeem a large amount of jl777hodl, just PM me and we can work out the details.

James
I fully agree with you that the standard way of getting in and out of the asset should be via trading it on the asset exchange. And the transparency of http://nxtreporting.com/?a=NXT-2AHU-UXZW-K9Q2-HENLW&c=USD and the option for justified (i.e. covering tx costs and other expenses) redemption give it a well defined value.  So thank you for clarifying. It seems to be a nice investment option to get exposure to a variety of NXT assets.
Thank you for asking such a good question
i will also try to provide more liquidity centered around the nxtreporting.com value to minimize the need for redemptions as that is clearly the best way
Logged
There are over 1000 people in SuperNET slack! http://slackinvite.supernet.org/ automatically sends you an invite

I am just a simple C programmer

MJ79

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Karma: +5/-0
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 92
    • View Profile
Re: Shark Report - sharktales and other musings
« Reply #115 on: June 16, 2014, 03:53:10 pm »

There isnt a mechanism to do this right now, but I guess that would solve the issue. Great idea!

If someone wants to pay the transfer fees for all the assets (~20 NXT) and can wait until I either automate the process or do it manually, for a large enough redemption I can convert the jl777hodl for the corresponding amount of its holdings. I think if I sent the redeemed amount to the genesis acct, it all balances out. There will also be rounding issues as many assets dont have decimals, so maybe some sort of horse trading at equivalent market price to make it all balance out. Anyway, many details to sort but all very possible.

Can somebody verify this for me?

Since this is a one way operation and time consuming, I dont want it to be happening all the time. The key point is that jl777hodl represents its prorata share of its holdings. So, if anybody wants to redeem a large amount of jl777hodl, just PM me and we can work out the details.

James

Wouldn't it be increasingly difficult to see the actual value per asset this way? Because then every time anyone wanted to check the value per asset they would also have to check assets held by the genesis account, wouldn't they? Formula would change from value/10 million to value/(10 million - genesis account assets). So investors would have a harder time determining value per asset, especially new investors that don't know genesis is holding destroyed assets? I personally think this would hurt the fund in the long run.

I think for the moment this fund/asset isn't sold that much for a few reasons. One of them is that you hadn't been promoting it that much, though that seems to be changing. Another is that the assets held by the fund are for the most part still just paper assets. So they're not yet paying any dividends. Once the underlying assets are actually active assets generating revenue the fund would actually see NXT flowing back into the fund.

So in my opinion maybe you should reconsider your position on dividends? I know the fund supposedly doesn't pay dividends, but at some point, assuming the underlying assets, or at least some of them, are successful, the fund will be receiving dividends in the form of NXT and it has to do something with that NXT. Now of course you can always buy more assets, but you could consider paying part of the NXT as dividends each month? Maybe 50% "cash" dividends and 50% reserved for investments?

I think this might avoid the possible chaos of selling the underlying assets while still pleasing the asset holders? Otherwise it would still pretty much act as a closed-end fund.
Logged

MJ79

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Karma: +5/-0
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 92
    • View Profile
Re: Shark Report - sharktales and other musings
« Reply #116 on: June 16, 2014, 05:07:34 pm »

And how come nxtreporting - shareholders for jl777hodl only shows 8.500.000,00 total assets owned by 88 accounts? Shouldn't that be 10 million?
Logged

cc001

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Karma: +68/-4
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 829
    • View Profile
Re: Shark Report - sharktales and other musings
« Reply #117 on: June 16, 2014, 06:29:37 pm »

And how come nxtreporting - shareholders for jl777hodl only shows 8.500.000,00 total assets owned by 88 accounts? Shouldn't that be 10 million?
jep you are right, it is a little bug, we hope to fix that soon. Most of the assets are correct. Thanks for the info
Logged
cc001 Personal - NXT-8RXS-2SSK-RNF2-HSNL8
NxtReporting.com - The Nxt Asset Exchange Portfolio Manager with Profitability Tracking - Donations are greatly appreciated on NXT-5W4G-GAR6-JHJP-H8ZTW

jl777

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Karma: +718/-123
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 6170
    • View Profile
Re: Shark Report - sharktales and other musings
« Reply #118 on: June 16, 2014, 07:12:05 pm »

There isnt a mechanism to do this right now, but I guess that would solve the issue. Great idea!

If someone wants to pay the transfer fees for all the assets (~20 NXT) and can wait until I either automate the process or do it manually, for a large enough redemption I can convert the jl777hodl for the corresponding amount of its holdings. I think if I sent the redeemed amount to the genesis acct, it all balances out. There will also be rounding issues as many assets dont have decimals, so maybe some sort of horse trading at equivalent market price to make it all balance out. Anyway, many details to sort but all very possible.

Can somebody verify this for me?

Since this is a one way operation and time consuming, I dont want it to be happening all the time. The key point is that jl777hodl represents its prorata share of its holdings. So, if anybody wants to redeem a large amount of jl777hodl, just PM me and we can work out the details.

James

Wouldn't it be increasingly difficult to see the actual value per asset this way? Because then every time anyone wanted to check the value per asset they would also have to check assets held by the genesis account, wouldn't they? Formula would change from value/10 million to value/(10 million - genesis account assets). So investors would have a harder time determining value per asset, especially new investors that don't know genesis is holding destroyed assets? I personally think this would hurt the fund in the long run.

I think for the moment this fund/asset isn't sold that much for a few reasons. One of them is that you hadn't been promoting it that much, though that seems to be changing. Another is that the assets held by the fund are for the most part still just paper assets. So they're not yet paying any dividends. Once the underlying assets are actually active assets generating revenue the fund would actually see NXT flowing back into the fund.

So in my opinion maybe you should reconsider your position on dividends? I know the fund supposedly doesn't pay dividends, but at some point, assuming the underlying assets, or at least some of them, are successful, the fund will be receiving dividends in the form of NXT and it has to do something with that NXT. Now of course you can always buy more assets, but you could consider paying part of the NXT as dividends each month? Maybe 50% "cash" dividends and 50% reserved for investments?

I think this might avoid the possible chaos of selling the underlying assets while still pleasing the asset holders? Otherwise it would still pretty much act as a closed-end fund.

yes, it would be easier if it stayed at round numbers. hopefully nxtreporting.com will be able to show the current asset value for assets like jl777hodl

James

P.S. What is really needed is a liquid market around the asset value and I will try to ensure this so we dont have to go liquidating any jl777hodl, I will do it if needed but it would make me sad to have to send to genesis
Logged
There are over 1000 people in SuperNET slack! http://slackinvite.supernet.org/ automatically sends you an invite

I am just a simple C programmer

jl777

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Karma: +718/-123
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 6170
    • View Profile
Re: Shark Report - sharktales and other musings
« Reply #119 on: June 19, 2014, 06:44:14 pm »

A few days ago I called a short term correction down to .00011 or even .0001
Seems like I was pretty lucky on that prediction

Now we did bounce off of .0001, but I am not calling a reversal of mini-correction yet
maybe it has, but need a bit more time to see what will happen

I did mange to make a little during this small correction, but nothing much compared to the size of sharkfund0
even the big gain in monero is good, but until DRK gets back on its feet, I dont see much change in net asset value

I will try to update the net asset value today, but I doubt it will be much different
Logged
There are over 1000 people in SuperNET slack! http://slackinvite.supernet.org/ automatically sends you an invite

I am just a simple C programmer
Pages: 1 ... 4 5 [6] 7 8 ... 19  All
 

elective-stereophonic
elective-stereophonic
assembly
assembly