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Author Topic: Shark Report - sharktales and other musings  (Read 33062 times)

Stadtfeger

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James

do not so expensive I will buy more later

the shark is really too hungry  ;D

jl777

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I made a big mistake yesterday :(
As you know I had nice bite of XC, but after it went up 500%, I figured I should take some profits. Then unlike my usual partial selling and keeping a chunk, I got a bad feeling about XC. Everything is based on a rumor of an anon functionality. To my knowlege, no src, no public version, so it just felt time to get out and bank the BTC.

While it did drop a bit from my exit, it then of course climbed to new highs. 40 BTC that could have been made, or 20BTC if I kept half, wasnt made.

Of course the QCN I shifted the BTC to went down a bit, so polo acct balance dropped 15 BTC. QCN is a MRO fork,but they want to make it more user friendly. It also has much fewer coins, so if you believe in MRO, the QCN seemed to be a good bet. At the time, I was using XC gains, so it didnt feel like a heavy decision,but I have to keep reminding myself that every BTC is as valuable as any other, regardless of how it was earned

So a hopefully temporary 1% dip on the polo side.
Of course, it is better to be lucky than good and in spite of all the logical arguments against my DRK will bounce off of .02 and get back to .025, consolidate a bit for a possible challenge to new high scenario, it seems that is pretty much exactly what DRK did. This is no surprise to me as in the absence of significant news all high volume markets behave this way. Similar to a damped harmonic oscillation. My forex modeling gave me way too many hours of staring at price movement screens. In my efforts to create SVMs to predict the market, I seem to have inadvertently learned too much about this stuff.

Automation is much more reliable than a sleepy shark!

So,at the high level the 15 BTC loss is balanced by 30 BTC gain from DRK, but XCP is a bit weaker and we are probable less than 10BTC different from yesterday. At current scale,this is less than half percent so I wont change the sharkfund0 quotes, especially since the next leg in DRK's journey is a pullback to around .0225. I believe it is in the process of forming a "flag pattern", most flags are rectangular but for some reason in technical analysis flags are those small triangle ones. What is happening is that fewer and fewer people are left that will either buy or sell, so the price movements shrink in magnitude as it oscillates around a middle ground.

If you look at current DRK chart, you will see it is oscillating around the .023 to .024 level. What happens is that it is kind of like a game of chicken between buyers and sellers. With something as volatile as DRK the LEAST likely thing is for it to continue horizontally at the same price. Imagine the odds of that! DRK between .023 and .024 for a month. Sure, and someone will forge 1440 blocks in a row too when that happens.

OK, so, up or down?

The thing is that only the big whales who decide this actually know and maybe they dont even know. It might be like me with XC last night. Someone with a big DRK holding gets a bad feeling and sells and breaks out of the tight range. Then it snowballs. Or the opposite could just as easily happen.

Flip a coin. Cant predict. So you just have to watch and wait to see what happens. That is much easier :)
Of course you make less money than using psychic powers, but I try to save my psychic powers for other things

James
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jl777

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The whole eaddqa thing got me all riled up. Now I seem to be coming down with a cold...

I will take care of calculating the asset value and probably call it an early night.

10000 DRK @ .026 = 260 BTC + 12000 XCP @ .0054 = 64.8 BTC
polo 126 BTC + bter 138 BTC + cryptsy 101 BTC + direct deposit 10 btc = 699.8 BTC @ .000069
10142028 NXT equivalent + 8884740 + open orders 995598 = 20022366 / 1933.5771 active sharkfund0

New sharkfund0 asset value is 10355.0910 bid @ 10266.3183

So the shark's streak ends. :(
After everything going right all the time, we finally hit a down day, but it wasnt caused by the trading error I made. Actually, XC peaked about 5 hours after my exit and looks to be in a downtrend, but I clearly left money on the table. However, DRK exceeded my .025 ceiling by a bit and that more than made up for the losses on polo, we actually ended up with more BTC equivalent!

So why are we down so much?

Its kind of strange but since I made so much BTC from trading gains we are now a bit like shortNXT! As NXT goes up, the value of the 700BTC goes down and with NXT up ~5% from yesterday,the 1% gain in BTC just wasnt enough to compensate.

Now, we should all be happy NXT went up and in some way this effect will stabilize the overall return, but maybe I should sell all the alts into BTC and buy 700 BTC of NXT? :)

Clearly, no so practical and costly in spreads, etc. I am not sure if I should worry about this. Maybe I need to do some fiat based tracking. Hopefully sharkfunders will understand that if NXT goes up X percent and sharkfund goes down by less than X percent, that it actually gained in value.

However, the looming bounce from current levels worries me. Just have way too much BTC. Anybody want to sell the shark around 10 million NXT?
please?

James
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MJ79

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I personally think, looking at the whole nature of the cryptocurrency trading, that people ultimately are still thinking in $/€. Their ultimate goal is having more fiat money, until we can actually pay gasoline with our cryptocurrency prepaid cards.

Therefor I think you should also just think in terms of gains in bitcoins, not NXT. As long as the value in bitcoin goes up, it's all fine. It's up to the investors to decide when to cash out, and wether they cash out to increase their NXT holding, or cash out because Bitcoin is back at 1000 dollar and they go back to fiat.

And besides, if I look at the buy order books at both Cryptsy and Bter, if your goal is to get sharkfund up, I think selling a few hundred thousand NXT would be more effective than buying 700 BTC worth of it ;)

There is simply no real volume on the exchanges in NXT, so either a sale or a purchase of a few bitcoin will make the price jump up or down with 5% or more, so nothing to worry about.

So maybe just bitcoin based tracking? I assume you prefer people to cash out in bitcoin anyway?

jl777

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I personally think, looking at the whole nature of the cryptocurrency trading, that people ultimately are still thinking in $/€. Their ultimate goal is having more fiat money, until we can actually pay gasoline with our cryptocurrency prepaid cards.

Therefor I think you should also just think in terms of gains in bitcoins, not NXT. As long as the value in bitcoin goes up, it's all fine. It's up to the investors to decide when to cash out, and wether they cash out to increase their NXT holding, or cash out because Bitcoin is back at 1000 dollar and they go back to fiat.

And besides, if I look at the buy order books at both Cryptsy and Bter, if your goal is to get sharkfund up, I think selling a few hundred thousand NXT would be more effective than buying 700 BTC worth of it ;)

There is simply no real volume on the exchanges in NXT, so either a sale or a purchase of a few bitcoin will make the price jump up or down with 5% or more, so nothing to worry about.

So maybe just bitcoin based tracking? I assume you prefer people to cash out in bitcoin anyway?
Thanks for the feedback. I am glad NXT peoples are smart peoples!
I will just keep doing what I feel will maximize the long term value of sharkfund0, without worrying about the wobbling of the daily asset value

I have to price it in NXT, but it is a good idea to put the number of BTC per sharkfund too

Thanks
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jl777

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Seems everyday something big is happening.
With DRK having its fork, many are panicking. Picked up some at discount when trading was stopped on some exchanges, but not others.
Seems I really made the wrong call with XC, it keeps going up, but I dont chase after things,at least I try not to as you can easily lose all the profits built up over time doing this.

So, important thing is to stay calm and stay the course, unless something fundamental changed. With DRK is seems there is a bug in the masternodes so they are going to update to stop payments temporarily. Not great, but certainly long term not a big deal.

Anyway, I am deep in coding/debugging MGW beta release as the servers are ready and everybody is clamoring for it, so I will just leave things as it is for now.

James
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gaman

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you're really good!!!

Tosch110

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Always cool to read James trading reports =)

jefdiesel

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Always cool to read James trading reports =)

Yeah my first stop after seeing the DRK plunge on coinmarketcap was to the shark report.

James maybe you should get a twitter or a tumblr for these sharkings? Or would that expose it too much?
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jl777

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Always cool to read James trading reports =)

Yeah my first stop after seeing the DRK plunge on coinmarketcap was to the shark report.

James maybe you should get a twitter or a tumblr for these sharkings? Or would that expose it too much?
I dont twitter
If people dont know about my reports, then if there is value in them, NXTers get some edge

DRK is still trading in China at ~.019
when it was .0125 on polo where the trollbox created massive panic
stuff like DRK causes cancer, etc.

Too bad I was coding, otherwise I would have gotten pretty quick 30% gainer
Still, once the DRK forking is under control (was caused by users not upgrading) I expect DRK will trade at a lower range and present a chance to accumulate, especially while masternode payments are suspended.

while XC is getting the spotlight now (I really shouldnt have sold it off!) I expect after the inevitable profit taking, XC profits -> MRO and QCN. Since the shark still has >1% of both MRO and QCN, I hope to convert some of them into DRK. All depending on ratios and liquidity. Probably in a few days time.

I think XC is still closed source and the wallet that everyone is going crazy over is an alpha test where the dev recommends not using more than 1 XC. So while the price action has proved me wrong so far, I am not convinced XC is actually long term viable. I mean, what is the algo? Some people say it is just coinjoin. If so, XC is so massively overvalued, its not funny

James
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prometheus

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I like reading these posts, thanks for putting them up for all to see

jl777

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I like reading these posts, thanks for putting them up for all to see
I am glad you like them. It helps me remember what is important and trading is not something you can be 100% at, so the key is to manage the risks and not let emotions decide for you.

SC peaked at .0017 and has dropped pretty steeply to .0013, not sure where the money is going as nothing seems to be going up. Probably parked in BTC waiting for the next momentum play

DRK has resumed trading on poloniex and started out at .022, not sure if that was left over orders or people looking at the prices in China, where this whole fork thing didnt seem to affect it much. Well not much more than the 30% drop today!

DRK seems to be trading very differently on bter vs polo. Not sure why...

So all this chaos clearly affects the trading range for DRK. Everything gets magnified, so what used to be a .0225 to .025 range, seems to have shifted down and doubled in size to .0175 to .0225

The key question is if it can maintain the .0175 level, if not, it could drop more. With all the questions about XC (does anybody know tech details on XC?) and whether it is a viable competitor to DRK, I think it could be a bit before DRK settles down.

So with DRK right around the dilution ratio to NXT, it seems that there really isnt much I can do, short of liquidating NXT. But I dont want to do that until I know DRK's days are over and one setback is not enough to convince me of that. Wait until Evan fixes the masternode and people start getting their 1 DRK per day for running them. That's good money. I think a lot of people expecting to get 30% return on their 1000 DRK bailed. So as soon as the 30% return is back on the table, expect DRK to recover at least to the .0225 level

Ah, MGW test results coming in, gotta go

James
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allwelder

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james,you are so smart buy XC, DRK,QCN and so on.
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MJ79

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James, are you planning on keeping around 50% of sharkfund funds in NXT at all times?

Just so I can decide if I want to lower my NXT balance a little and invest it in other things.

Thanks.

jl777

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James, are you planning on keeping around 50% of sharkfund funds in NXT at all times?

Just so I can decide if I want to lower my NXT balance a little and invest it in other things.

Thanks.
I cannot commit to always having at least 50% in NXT, but since sharkfund0 is denominated in NXT, if I ever go signficantly below 50%, it would be if I felt there was a short term overbought condition. This gets very tricky though so until I get my SVM predictors fine tuned for NXT/BTC it will probably be just around the edges.

As it is, I am feeling a bit too BTC heavy, well actually it is DRK heavy mostly, as NXT is at the lower end of this cycle. As I wrote previously, I have been concerned about 700BTC of non-NXT value as if NXT just goes to .00008500 (my estimate of next up cycle) sharkfund will go backwards as it is gaining in fiat value.

There was the payexpo NXT that had to be converted and doing it on open market would have really affected the NXT price. I disabled sharkmode and converted at market median price. Havent had a chance to recalculate, but we are well over 50% in NXT now.

As expected, DRK is fixing its technical issues and I already flipped some DRK purchased during the panic for a small gain. I expect it to recover to the .0225 level. With the sharp BTC spike, I also hedged against its drop with some shortNXT. Half of it sold at a few points profit and the rest is still there waiting for the BTC pullback to ~550

So, still kicking myself for jumping off XC, but whats done is done and the Shark is in a waiting mode now, which is actually good as I do need to push the MGW release before I take a week off.

James
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jl777

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james,you are so smart buy XC, DRK,QCN and so on.
not so smart to have sold the XC at half current prices, but 300% gain is something hard to refuse, especially if it happens in two days. So many times I have seen a big spike followed by fizzle
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Nobody ever got broke takeing profits! ;)

mikesbmw

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james,you are so smart buy XC, DRK,QCN and so on.
not so smart to have sold the XC at half current prices, but 300% gain is something hard to refuse, especially if it happens in two days. So many times I have seen a big spike followed by fizzle
Better to have a large profit than a, however, small loss!  ;D

Should've, could've. (mumbling something about buying Nxt at 700-ish and selling at 1300-ish)   :-\
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With the sharp BTC spike, I also hedged against its drop with some shortNXT. Half of it sold at a few points profit and the rest is still there waiting for the BTC pullback to ~550
Perfect use case of the ShortNXT asset, James. Thanks for the vote of confidence in hedging such a large position with it (and for documenting how it fit in with your strategy)!
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jl777

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With the sharp BTC spike, I also hedged against its drop with some shortNXT. Half of it sold at a few points profit and the rest is still there waiting for the BTC pullback to ~550
Perfect use case of the ShortNXT asset, James. Thanks for the vote of confidence in hedging such a large position with it (and for documenting how it fit in with your strategy)!
Not so perfect yet as the BTC isnt pulling back like I thought it would. just hope it does so I can close the open positions and maintain my 100% shortNXT trading record :)

I only hedged 5%, but I guess that was almost 1 million NXT!

James
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