I made a big mistake yesterday
As you know I had nice bite of XC, but after it went up 500%, I figured I should take some profits. Then unlike my usual partial selling and keeping a chunk, I got a bad feeling about XC. Everything is based on a rumor of an anon functionality. To my knowlege, no src, no public version, so it just felt time to get out and bank the BTC.
While it did drop a bit from my exit, it then of course climbed to new highs. 40 BTC that could have been made, or 20BTC if I kept half, wasnt made.
Of course the QCN I shifted the BTC to went down a bit, so polo acct balance dropped 15 BTC. QCN is a MRO fork,but they want to make it more user friendly. It also has much fewer coins, so if you believe in MRO, the QCN seemed to be a good bet. At the time, I was using XC gains, so it didnt feel like a heavy decision,but I have to keep reminding myself that every BTC is as valuable as any other, regardless of how it was earned
So a hopefully temporary 1% dip on the polo side.
Of course, it is better to be lucky than good and in spite of all the logical arguments against my DRK will bounce off of .02 and get back to .025, consolidate a bit for a possible challenge to new high scenario, it seems that is pretty much exactly what DRK did. This is no surprise to me as in the absence of significant news all high volume markets behave this way. Similar to a damped harmonic oscillation. My forex modeling gave me way too many hours of staring at price movement screens. In my efforts to create SVMs to predict the market, I seem to have inadvertently learned too much about this stuff.
Automation is much more reliable than a sleepy shark!
So,at the high level the 15 BTC loss is balanced by 30 BTC gain from DRK, but XCP is a bit weaker and we are probable less than 10BTC different from yesterday. At current scale,this is less than half percent so I wont change the sharkfund0 quotes, especially since the next leg in DRK's journey is a pullback to around .0225. I believe it is in the process of forming a "flag pattern", most flags are rectangular but for some reason in technical analysis flags are those small triangle ones. What is happening is that fewer and fewer people are left that will either buy or sell, so the price movements shrink in magnitude as it oscillates around a middle ground.
If you look at current DRK chart, you will see it is oscillating around the .023 to .024 level. What happens is that it is kind of like a game of chicken between buyers and sellers. With something as volatile as DRK the LEAST likely thing is for it to continue horizontally at the same price. Imagine the odds of that! DRK between .023 and .024 for a month. Sure, and someone will forge 1440 blocks in a row too when that happens.
OK, so, up or down?
The thing is that only the big whales who decide this actually know and maybe they dont even know. It might be like me with XC last night. Someone with a big DRK holding gets a bad feeling and sells and breaks out of the tight range. Then it snowballs. Or the opposite could just as easily happen.
Flip a coin. Cant predict. So you just have to watch and wait to see what happens. That is much easier
Of course you make less money than using psychic powers, but I try to save my psychic powers for other things