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Author Topic: Shark Report - sharktales and other musings  (Read 31111 times)

jl777

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:(
Someone just put a bid at 25% gain over the sharkfund0 price of a few days ago.
The problem is that somebody bought one. Now I know I cant control what people do, but this just goes against what I want for people who purchase my assets.

I guess it was my fault that I didnt have time to recalculate the new asset value. I dont want sharkfund0 to have any speculative value added to it. It should reflect the market value of its assets.

So, even though this is not part of official sharkfund0, I will send extra sharkfund0 to the eager purchaser who overpaid. Please, if you want to buy (or sell) sharkfund0, only do it from the issuer, unless somebody else is offering a better price. PM me if there are no quotes.

James

P.S. I will use my personal sharkfund0 assets to compensate as it was my fault for not recalculating the asset value. I just guesstimated 10200 asset value for now. Dont hold it against me if it is wrong
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Sorry James... I was the seller.

This is because I always have an exit point for all of my investments.  I have a hunch that it won't take long for your shark fund to reach that value.  I don't want you to take the loss, though.  FYI, when I posted that sell I was the lowest buy amongst 3 other sellers.  I really didn't think anyone would bite today.

Traders: Come on guys, this is 25% over the issuers price.

PM me if you want to work out a transfer of funds.
« Last Edit: May 23, 2014, 03:25:08 pm by rlh »
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jl777

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Sorry James... I was the seller.

This is because I always have an exit point for all of my investments.  I have a hunch that it won't take long for your shark fund to reach that value.  I don't want you to take the loss, though.  FYI, when I posted that sell I was the lowest but amongst 3 other sellers.  I really didn't think anyone would bite today.

Traders: Come on guys, this is 25% over the issuers price.

PM me if you want to work out a transfer of funds.
very sharky of you!
You earned it fair and square, its yours to keep
my only concern was to protect the purchaser from overpaying
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jefdiesel

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James, I have to applaud you yet again on your business acumen and scruples towards the NXT community in general, and investors specifically.

Nice to see that sharks have a soft cuddly side ;)

But I also agree there is a ton of as yet unrealized worth in these assets, sharkfund0 and the rest. The market forces will always have their way, and if i was to shift off my HODL position, I too would list this at somewhere 25% over current market (to start!). Just too bad the buyer CHOSE (or mistakenly) bought at the wrong price.

Wait until the AE starts paying dividends, people are going to go bonkers, and rush in with their Phillip J Fry memes and wads of cryptocurrency to throw around.

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jl777

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James, I have to applaud you yet again on your business acumen and scruples towards the NXT community in general, and investors specifically.

Nice to see that sharks have a soft cuddly side ;)

But I also agree there is a ton of as yet unrealized worth in these assets, sharkfund0 and the rest. The market forces will always have their way, and if i was to shift off my HODL position, I too would list this at somewhere 25% over current market (to start!). Just too bad the buyer CHOSE (or mistakenly) bought at the wrong price.

Wait until the AE starts paying dividends, people are going to go bonkers, and rush in with their Phillip J Fry memes and wads of cryptocurrency to throw around.
I have to work hard to pretend I am a shark, even rlh who shark'ed the .25 BTC offers to send it back, so we really are not so good sharks below the surface

Of course, how I treat NXT community is totally different than outside. There I can be very sharkey

sharkfund0 should always be marked to market so it will fluctuate in price with the overall market. As long as people dont panic, then it will give time for the big gains to kick in. I have been waiting a "while" (crypto time) for ANC to finally get discovered. It was actually one of the first altcoins. But for some reason new coins get all the volumes.

Most of the AE assets are a play on future growth of NXT and each individual asset. I believe sharkfund0 is the only one fully backed by actual liquid assets and redeemable. With significant chunks of the promising top cryptos in its long term portfolio, it could become a proxy to get a slice of all cryptos (without the garbage). At least that is my hope.

I havent figured out how to properly deal with the 75/25 split between sharkfund0 investors and NXTshark, but the current bid/ask method essentially prices the load factor in the spread. Need to have voldemort who actually has financials experience figure out all the details.

Not sure what you mean about when AE gives dividends. I already announced 0.25 NXTautoDAC for every NXTventure asset dividend effective end of this month. I believe that will easily set the record for largest dividend ever for NXT asset as the current value is around 5 NXT
Also, I see many of the assets are using my quick hack dividend calculator and I see dividends going out for many assets,

James
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jefdiesel

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Not sure what you mean about when AE gives dividends. I already announced 0.25 NXTautoDAC for every NXTventure asset dividend effective end of this month. I believe that will easily set the record for largest dividend ever for NXT asset as the current value is around 5 NXT


James
Thanks for replying james, I love the idea about sharkfund0 providing a managed crytpo spider fund. brilliant, hadn't thought of it that way.

I know you are paying out that NXTVenture dividend, thats a great start to the AE payouts. I meant more in general to "wait until ALL the AE assets start paying out dividends" and how people will flock in

I took my 4k NXTventure, figured on the 20k worth of autoDAC, and tried to spend the dividend on NXTventure, but the announcement has already driven up the price.. got 115 at 23, and now the lowest ask is 32.5!

But thats just me being a baby sand shark ;) man this is fun!
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DoM P

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Hello James,

Replying here following your comment here https://nxtforum.org/general-discussion/price-speculation/msg27650/#msg27650

I'll create the charts you want, provided I understand what you want (and if I can get the data)

So, if I get it right, you want me to calculate Drk/Nxt ratio (plus some others)
But ratios of what exactly ? Their market caps ? Their market shares (which are ratios to start with), something else ?
What time frame do you want ? I create my charts once a day at noon GMT +1. Would you need shorter time frames ? Every hour ?


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jl777

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Hello James,

Replying here following your comment here https://nxtforum.org/general-discussion/price-speculation/msg27650/#msg27650

I'll create the charts you want, provided I understand what you want (and if I can get the data)

So, if I get it right, you want me to calculate Drk/Nxt ratio (plus some others)
But ratios of what exactly ? Their market caps ? Their market shares (which are ratios to start with), something else ?
What time frame do you want ? I create my charts once a day at noon GMT +1. Would you need shorter time frames ? Every hour ?
Just ratio of prices,that is how I think about them when trading
daily is plenty,these ratios usually dont change much
it factors out the whole entire crypto changes values as BTC goes up and down and by isolating linked cryptos, it is possible to see the funds going from one to the other as the ratio changes

I call it ratio trading, but I am sure there is some fancy term for this
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DoM P

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Well, after a brief test, here's what I can do :



This is based on the numbers I gathered since May 8th. But those numbers only record market cap ratios.
If you want the coins prices, I need to start a new series, where we'll lack history.
Anyway, we'll lack history for the other ratios you asked for.

So... Am I heading toward the right direction ?
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jl777

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Well, after a brief test, here's what I can do :



This is based on the numbers I gathered since May 8th. But those numbers only record market cap ratios.
If you want the coins prices, I need to start a new series, where we'll lack history.
Anyway, we'll lack history for the other ratios you asked for.

So... Am I heading toward the right direction ?
yes!
Ive spent literally years looking at charts like that, they speak to me :)
Actually market cap might be a better ratio, for DRK and NXT the total coins dont change much at all, so they will look the same
MRO is going to change and XC will be dramatically increasing supply

hate to make more work for you,but I think having both will be best

James
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DoM P

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yes!
Ive spent literally years looking at charts like that, they speak to me :)
Actually market cap might be a better ratio, for DRK and NXT the total coins dont change much at all, so they will look the same
MRO is going to change and XC will be dramatically increasing supply

hate to make more work for you,but I think having both will be best

James

Don't worry, that's not that much work...
But we won't have history.
So here's what I'll do :
- Starting tomorrow, I will record market caps and coins values for all coins listed on coinmarketcap.com
- Then I will be able to calculate any paired ratio you want.

We'll construct history as we go on, unless someone tells me how I can get this kind of data from the past.

Is this plan OK with you ?
Have you heard of CryptoCoins? You should!
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jl777

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yes!
Ive spent literally years looking at charts like that, they speak to me :)
Actually market cap might be a better ratio, for DRK and NXT the total coins dont change much at all, so they will look the same
MRO is going to change and XC will be dramatically increasing supply

hate to make more work for you,but I think having both will be best

James

Don't worry, that's not that much work...
But we won't have history.
So here's what I'll do :
- Starting tomorrow, I will record market caps and coins values for all coins listed on coinmarketcap.com
- Then I will be able to calculate any paired ratio you want.

We'll construct history as we go on, unless someone tells me how I can get this kind of data from the past.

Is this plan OK with you ?
Its a great plan
contact nexern and beg him for some of his data
I am sure he has all this starting from at least a month back
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jefdiesel

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**rubs hands**

now where can i find some more money to buy sharkfund0?
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jl777

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Finally got a chance to calculate the latest asset values. Virtually all major holdings went up today and with BTC flat and NXT down 7%, the effect is magnified

DRK +21% with 10348 = 0.2395% of all DRK
XCP +30% with 14818 = 0.5593% of all XCP
MRO +42% with 7546 = 0.8304% of all MRO
ANC +10% with 14734 = 1.4954% of all ANC
XC +66% with 61584 = 1.3469% of all XC

Having all five major holdings go up is not normal and certainly not when all are double digit percentage gainers, most very healthy double digits. A pullback is expected and please do not be surprised if tomorrow's asset value actually drops.

So while the vast majority of sharkfund0 is happily forging away (89 forged blocks so far and 1094 earned) with 10 million NXT and another 2 million on exchanges, the overall asset value has increased to over 3% the initial price to 10315.717

I have set the bid 25% below this, still have not figured out what do to about NXTsharks profits, but until voldemort tells me to change this method, I will just factor in the load in the bid/ask spread. Also, since NXTsharks has not been sold yet, i dont think there will be any complaints from the asset holders. For now it is less than a percent, but if I keep gaining a percent per day of asset value, the spread will become painful before too long.

ask 10315.717
bid 10236.7877

It has not been a week yet and 3% might sound small, but annualized it is an unsustainable 150%
It is a sobering thought to realize sharkfund0 gained a total of around 600000 NXT since it started. Clearly DRK mania is not sustainable and so expect some downs and not always ups, it usually doesnt go this well. 25% of that is 150000 profits that would have gone to NXTsharks asset holders,but since there are only 250000 NXTshark assets, the dividend would have been 0.6 NXT this week. Clearly a dividend rate of 30 NXT per year is not sustainable, is it?

James
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jl777

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DRK has finally gotten a bit tired and has come down a bit. As I expected it found strong support at .02
The round numbers are particularly common as support/resistance simply because it is easy to put in orders at those prices. People tend to like round numbers.

Never underestimate the trend. It aint over till its over,or something like that.
So, what makes a trend. If you are seeing higher highs then it is an uptrend. Nothing goes in a straight line and after a big run up, it is expected to drop back. The key is how far back. If it drops below the previous peak, then maybe its found its new level and will oscillate, or maybe even drop down another notch

If you look at the chart, DRK is really stretching the peaks,its not really even a peak, but .019 is the last peaklike thing, so combine that with the psychological .02 and we now have our trigger. These are also close to the long term dilution ratio against NXT. Basically if DRK goes to .02 we are expecting either a bounce or a drop.

Long term I am believer in crypto, so I dont want to reduce my DRK holdings even if it does fall through the .02 level. I will use it to accumulate more. I feel 0.25% to be the core holdings level. Maybe silly, but BTC itself isnt feeling so solid long term, so diversification seems best.

So, two possible near future scenarios. DRK solidifies its > .02 price and hovers around .02 and .025 and at some point people adjust their view on what is expensive for DRK and it can climb again. Stairstep fashion toward LTC market cap.

Or, it doesnt stay above .02 and then drops down to the .015 to .02 range. If it drops below .015 in the near term I would be surprised. Not sure where I will come back in,eg.dont try to catch falling knifes! Wait for it to settle and stop the downtrend.

A key factor in all this are all the DRK wannabes. Not sure if people are actually copying me, but little traded ANC is up 40% today already, MRO is holding steady. Basically no matter which anon crypto wins, sharkfund has a nice sized chunk of it already. I am not smart enough to know which one will win, so I just got a bit of all of them

James



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jl777

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Does anybody know anything about CGA? I dont have time to research it and it popped up to the top of the poloniex volumes

James
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Nice read keep it up i like to follow  ;)

A social platform for trading nxt and other alts with users gains open to see like a fb page with the option to copy a trader like etoros copy trader function does. would be a great idea for an alt exchange
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jl777

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Quick report, as expected DRK is consolidating and -11%, XCP -7%
no surprises

Pleasant surprises with MRO +40%, ANC +40%, XC +60%!

Due to the much bigger value of DRK and XCP, I think overall probably neutral, which is quite surprising considering the extreme gains of yesterday. I will just keep the asset values as they are.

Oh, I did grab a bit of CGA, it sounded familiar to CGB, but one letter makes a big difference. Dont know much about this, but there are only 40,000 total coins, so getting 1%+ didnt cost much at all. Oh, not sure if the numbers make any sense with CGA since it had stopped trading for a while, coinmarketcap #98 says +2000%, but poloniex has a more realistic 150%

Clearly I have been very lucky recently, but better lucky than good.

James

P.S. For those who are copying my positions, be very careful with CGA, there is virtually no inventory, so even small buys pushes the price artificially up. However, you wont be able to liquidate without pushing the price back down, so no real point.
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I bought some blackcoins at 20 and some were sold for about 31... But hopefully it will go much higher
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Crazy market. BTC is strongly up to $568, which is weakening NXT a bit in terms of BTC, but NXT is up fractionally against USD

DRK bounced right off of .02, just like somebody predicted, and is gradually building back up to .025. We will see if it pushes through or reflects back. I predict it will go sideways for a while, mostly due to the up and coming anon coins and the original ANC all being strong.

DRK +2%, quite impressive considering its recent gains
XCP +6%, these are just coinmarketcap percentage vs USD
MRO +30% and now it is #16
XC +383%! and already at #18
ANC +18%

OK, so I got lucky again. Time to adjust asset value for sharkfund0 as it has to have gone up a bit with all five up. I did pick up a sharkbite from a couple more coins, a bit risky, but using locked in gains from MRO and XC, so not risking capital, just some profits. When you are on a roll, keep rolling :)


portfolio changed a lot, so I will just use summary info:
10000 DRK @ .0225 = 225 BTC + 12000 XCP @ .0058 = 69.6 BTC
polo 148 BTC + bter 137 BTC + cryptsy 102 BTC + direct deposit 10 btc = 691.6 BTC @ .000066
10478787 NXT equivalent + 9668985 + open orders 502367 = 20650139 / 1921.5745 active sharkfund0

New sharkfund0 asset value is 10746.4685

Yikes! It is going up too fast. There is no way I can sustain this level of performance. Its been a lot of luck the recent days. Please do not expect this to keep up. Everyone says its impossible to do better than random and it has to be pure luck that I have gained over 1.4 million NXT in a week of active trading, right?

Anyway, new ask is 10746.4685 and bid is 10559.8513
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