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Privatebet - cat is out of bag
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Author Topic: Privatebet - cat is out of bag  (Read 6475 times)

jl777

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Privatebet - cat is out of bag
« on: July 25, 2014, 02:44:28 am »

Well, some people that obtained early NXTprivacy and Privatebet assets put some on the market before I was ready for this, and at significant premiums over what the price I had planned on. Since this would create unhappy buyers for anybody that buys from these third parties, I have been forced to put these assets for sale.

I am too busy coding now for proper explanations of these assets, but a summary version is that NXTprivacy owns 50% of Privatebet (after it sells what is on AE) and the dividends from Privatebet will flow through to NXTprivacy asset holders, so this puts a 2:1 ratio between Privatebet and NXTprivacy, just from this. However, NXTprivacy also is dealing with monetizing privacyServers and whatever it can get from that will also add to NXTprivacy dividends, plus maybe some more privacy oriented things. I would think a ratio of 1.5:1 to 2:1 is a reasonable ratio for Privatebet:NXTprivacy due to this.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1G-xRirAIAFHhJb1b04HG5EGXoG68O7SesiRm9mbRI9c/edit?usp=sharing has a rough description of GUI, the more specific technical details are not strictly accurate and has been changed, but at least you will get some ideas on what to expect.

James

Privatebet team:
longzai will be doing the GUI
l8orre will be doing the API so that longzai can do the GUI
I will be doing low level API that l8orre needs
rdanneskjoldr is the resident expert bettor and as creator of GUI spec is the one to ask for anything regarding the user experience.
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Sebastien256

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Re: Privatebet - cat is out of bag
« Reply #1 on: July 25, 2014, 02:59:47 am »

hi james,

if i understand well, you estimate that privateBet currently worth 20 millions NXT or near 1 million usd dollars?
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jl777

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Re: Privatebet - cat is out of bag
« Reply #2 on: July 25, 2014, 03:22:03 am »

hi james,

if i understand well, you estimate that privateBet currently worth 20 millions NXT or near 1 million usd dollars?
I didnt expect to come out with Privatebet until we had working beta, so this valuation is my estimate for that time.

The sportsbetting market is huge:
http://www.egrmagazine.com/writeable/editor_uploads/pdf/2013_EGR_sportsbetting-report.pdf
There are companies with annual profits in hundreds of millions and valuations in the billions.

With an estimated 80% of revenues payout, the breakeven would be lifetime Privatebet fees of $1.25 million dollars.

Another way to look at it is with a PE of 10, ~$10000 of fees per month reaches this valuation. Now, I believe a PE in a high growth market should be much higher than 10, but lets be conservative on that one.

Maybe I am too optimistic about being able to get some small percentage of giant market with the lowest fees, decentralized peeer to peer solution. I leave it to investors to decide if they think I can create something that will get more than $10K/month in fees.

James





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Sebastien256

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Re: Privatebet - cat is out of bag
« Reply #3 on: July 25, 2014, 03:42:44 am »

Would not it be better if you release only a subset of the asset capitalization at a lower price now and then release more shares later at a higher price or at the market price (with pre-announcement in due time)?

I'm pretty sure you can achieve the target you have fix for privateBet in the future, it is just the time frame to realize that bug me. I fear that it might take a long time for ROI. I have no estimate tho.... Do you have some?

Imo, at the moment, investors are taking high risk at a 20Nxt per shares. Or I mean, ROI might be long and there is little incensitive to invest now. Later on, im pretty sure this 20 Nxt per shares might be correct. As a side note, you might attract a larger pool of investors if you lower the current capitalization of privateBet.

Im asking you more details, because I'm interest in this kind of asset.
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jl777

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Re: Privatebet - cat is out of bag
« Reply #4 on: July 25, 2014, 03:48:45 am »

Would not it be better if you release only a subset of the asset capitalization at a lower price now and then release more shares later at a higher price or at the market price (with pre-announcement in due time)?

I'm pretty sure you can achieve the target you have fix for privateBet in the future, it is just the time frame to realize that bug me. I fear that it might take a long time for ROI. I have no estimate tho.... Do you have some?

Imo, at the moment, investors are taking high risk at a 20Nxt per shares. Or I mean, ROI might be long and there is little incensitive to invest now. Later on, im pretty sure this 20 Nxt per shares might be correct. As a side note, you might attract a larger pool of investors if you lower the current capitalization of privateBet.

Im asking you more details, because I'm interest in this kind of asset.
As I said, this is a future value that I am basing it on. We are not needing the funds to complete Private bet, so we do not need any investments, it is just there to prevent people from overpaying to the third party asks that are there.
So, please if you are in a hurry, then dont invest. Just wait until you feel the price is a good deal

James
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Re: Privatebet - cat is out of bag
« Reply #5 on: July 25, 2014, 09:15:12 am »

Trade is online now . :D
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Berzerk

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Re: Privatebet - cat is out of bag
« Reply #6 on: July 25, 2014, 09:32:09 am »

Too expensive. There is no chance for grow. You should valuate this at 5M NXT.
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fishboiQ

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Re: Privatebet - cat is out of bag
« Reply #7 on: January 06, 2015, 03:48:16 am »

Update please
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eB101

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Re: Privatebet - cat is out of bag
« Reply #8 on: May 04, 2015, 03:25:36 am »

Is it the right place to ask for an update of privatebet ?
(if so)
What happened with the recipe provided by cfb for the dice game? is it still supposed to fall under privatebet? what else fall under privatebet, is there an ETA for sport bets?

Thx
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jl777

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Re: Privatebet - cat is out of bag
« Reply #9 on: May 04, 2015, 03:33:10 am »

Is it the right place to ask for an update of privatebet ?
(if so)
What happened with the recipe provided by cfb for the dice game? is it still supposed to fall under privatebet? what else fall under privatebet, is there an ETA for sport bets?

Thx
privatebet will be a variant of InstantDEX orderbooks, so as InstantDEX main usecase is getting closer to done, privatebet is nearing. however we still need to have somebody figure out all the different data sources for all the things to bet on.

hash is debugging the neodice, not sure of exact status
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eB101

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Re: Privatebet - cat is out of bag
« Reply #10 on: May 04, 2015, 03:40:36 am »

Alright, makes sense. I'll check on InstantDEX for now then, thx for the quick response.
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LocoMB

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Re: Privatebet - cat is out of bag
« Reply #11 on: May 04, 2015, 07:00:04 am »


we already have a proxy controller with organisational facilities for betting use cases that are needed for a betting application but are not part of privatebet core that is embedded in SuperNET.

these are as James mentions data sources and things like that, eg http://developer.sportsdatallc.com/ 

GUI will be a variant of some version of the IDEX GUI too.

If anyone is interested in tying together and organising the high level betting use case stuff such as marketing, venue selections+stuff like that, please contact me!
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peddycb

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Re: Privatebet - cat is out of bag
« Reply #12 on: July 28, 2015, 07:24:09 pm »

Hello jl777 there to privatebet something new or to http://www.instantdex.net/
can one even say about when to start this  ???
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jl777

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Re: Privatebet - cat is out of bag
« Reply #13 on: July 28, 2015, 09:21:59 pm »

Hello jl777 there to privatebet something new or to http://www.instantdex.net/
can one even say about when to start this  ???
peggy will support privatebets, actually binary bets and distance bets. more info after I make testnet release
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peggy2jj

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Re: Privatebet - cat is out of bag
« Reply #14 on: July 28, 2015, 10:06:16 pm »

I will support anything you ask  :)
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