Let us take the following trade as an example:
09/01 09:16 08/27 13:29 ETC/BTC 3,008.20 222,641 225,529 13.491฿ 86.88m฿ 9.62m฿ 77.26m฿ 1.2
3,008.20 ETC was purchased on August 27 at price 222,641, value=6.67฿. Then 5 days later the investment was sold at 225,529, value=6.78฿. The profit after fees was 77.26m฿=0.077฿. Have a look at the plot below. I have marked the purchase date (approximately) with a green circle and the sell date with a red circle.
In my opinion, this plot illustrates the risk with the LQD trading robot:
* A relatively large amount (in this case more than half of the fund's BTC money) was locked up in a single trade
* The fund must potentially wait for many days (in this case 5 days) before a small profit can be made (in this case the profit was 1.2% of the amount invested)
* The fund has a maximum number of days it can stay invested. If the 1.2% profit can not be made in a certain number of days, then the fund sells out with a loss
It happens frequently that crypto-investments dump heavily and don't recover the value in many days. I think this is the biggest risk and fundamental flaw with the LQD trading robot. I don't think this is a bug which can be fixed easily. Increasing the number of days before selling out with a loss does not solve the fundamental problem. A 3rd party review of the code is not necessary - just analyse the trades which are posted at: http://www.liquidtech.info/trades
I appreciate the analysis, but your conclusions are not completely informed and thus not entirely correct. At the time when that trade started, it wasn't half the fund. It was like 7BTC out of around 230BTC which is about 3%. Sure, you could argue that XMR was a massive amount and as I stated before, I did trade larger amounts on markets that have not historically been pump and dumps, but reasonably stable usually no more than 50-100% swings. All things considered, even with that 300% swing, if I hadn't had the bug in my code, we wouldn't have taken the loss at all as the code would have corrected as intended and not over margined.
Your other points are interesting thoughts, but only sort of correct. I know everyone would love to know the exact details, but if I were to layout everything then it would be copied.
Yes, there is a trust element here as with any company or fund you invest in. I will also admit that I knew it was possible I could be on the edge if one of the markets that I assumed was stable suddenly loses it's mind for a while (btw, XMR will come back down over the next few weeks). I was hoping to get to 300BTC and then I was going to dial it back about half just in case...once again if that part of the code did not have a bug in it, we wouldn't be having this conversation at all.
To answer what I believe is the main thrust here...if I'm able to raise the funds I need to keep going (at least 100BTC) , here's what will be different.
1) The bug is fixed.
2) I will half the margin usage
3) Min. dividend payouts will be 50% of profit each month
Thanks for your comments and everyone else. Please keep them coming. I'm hoping to have a decision by the weekend.
LibertyNow