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Well, I think you can do more than speculate. I just haven't taken the time to do the math yet and was wondering if someone has. Assume you have to generate > 3 NXT to make this worth your while. With the maximum lease time, with the current expected forging of this pool, with the current average tx per block, there is some number of NXT that you would need to have and contribute in order to have a chance of coming out ahead.

The math obviously changes as the forging power of the pool changes, Nxt fees eventually adjust, block fees change, etc, but you can certainly make a good guess as to what to expect currently. As it currently stands, it appears that a large majority of people leasing their NXT will not come out ahead.

I think you must be misunderstanding me. I am clearly not saying you can pin this down exactly. That would be an absurd thing to say. I am saying you can analyze existing statistics to make an educated guess at what a break even number is, and make decisions based on that, and how you think the conditions may change.

This isn't a new concept in crypto. Difficulty for PoW coins is a mathematical best guess based on current hashrates to best approximate a target block time. This isn't exact, and yet, this we still deem difficulty to be an important metric to look at. Profitability calculators will calculate your estimated break even time. This too is inexact, but very useful in trying to plan hardware purchases for mining.

Similarly, it is clearly useful to do some analysis of forging pools, if your purpose is to lease your balance with the hopes of earning more NXT than if you hadn't. So yes, you run the numbers to produce a number which assumes nothing in the Nxt ecosystem changes. That is your benchmark with which you then project your opinions about how things will change. "Sure, the numbers say I am projected to earn less than the break even point of 3 NXT based on this pool's forging history, but I am predicting tons of new assets being added and lots of 1000 fee blocks, so I am going to do it anyway."

As it stands, much of the tone I have noticed after the release of pooled forging has been "Don't just let your NXT sit there, put them to work for you in a forging pool!", with the assumption that doing so is better than not. This assumption is not necessarily correct (clearly, as the vast majority of the people in this pool are in the red).

All I am saying is that an analysis of the current state of these forging pools is a very useful piece of data to have when deciding if it is worth it or not for you to lease your balance. It is not the only piece. It is not exact. Of course not. It is supplemented by your beliefs and predictions of what will happen next. But if you think using "math" to make calculated estimates to inform your decision regarding wether or not this makes sense isn't helpful here, then we probably just won't be on the same page.

I think you must be misunderstanding me. I am clearly not saying you can pin this down exactly. That would be an absurd thing to say. I am saying you can analyze existing statistics to make an educated guess at what a break even number is, and make decisions based on that, and how you think the conditions may change.

This isn't a new concept in crypto. Difficulty for PoW coins is a mathematical best guess based on current hashrates to best approximate a target block time. This isn't exact, and yet, this we still deem difficulty to be an important metric to look at. Profitability calculators will calculate your estimated break even time. This too is inexact, but very useful in trying to plan hardware purchases for mining.

Similarly, it is clearly useful to do some analysis of forging pools, if your purpose is to lease your balance with the hopes of earning more NXT than if you hadn't. So yes, you run the numbers to produce a number which assumes nothing in the Nxt ecosystem changes. That is your benchmark with which you then project your opinions about how things will change. "Sure, the numbers say I am projected to earn less than the break even point of 3 NXT based on this pool's forging history, but I am predicting tons of new assets being added and lots of 1000 fee blocks, so I am going to do it anyway."

As it stands, much of the tone I have noticed after the release of pooled forging has been "Don't just let your NXT sit there, put them to work for you in a forging pool!", with the assumption that doing so is better than not. This assumption is not necessarily correct (clearly, as the vast majority of the people in this pool are in the red).

All I am saying is that an analysis of the current state of these forging pools is a very useful piece of data to have when deciding if it is worth it or not for you to lease your balance. It is not the only piece. It is not exact. Of course not. It is supplemented by your beliefs and predictions of what will happen next. But if you think using "math" to make calculated estimates to inform your decision regarding wether or not this makes sense isn't helpful here, then we probably just won't be on the same page.

+1

Well said.

I am one of the first that leased my acc but god help I dont understand how you run it? Why are the shares constantly different? One day I my share is 3, next 7, today 0!
...
Found the confirmed ones down the list! It's still pretty confusing

look at your confirmed balance versus your unconfirmed.  unconfirmed is recent earnings for the latest 1440 blocks.  these are subject to changes based on what happend in the blockchain

confirmed is for blocks with at least 1440 confirmations and are set in stone

Also Ive constantly been improving the code, and this requires rescanning of all blocks since I started accepting leases, so this can also affect the reporting.

but it is based on the blockchain.  what you are seeing is just reporting, but what is actually the case is already set in stone.

but please check your account under CONFIRMED and you should see earnings there.

what you can expect to see, is that since the unconfirmed balance is only of the latest 1440 blocks, your balance for unconfirmed WILL move up and down, as we forge new blocks, and also as those earnings gradually get confirmed and move down into the confirmed reporting section.

Found the confirmed ones down the list! It's still pretty confusing

ill split the info into 2 pages and give a good description at the top.  ive been meaning to do this but wanted to complete th AM payment part first

I think it would be better if you create a table with three columns instead of having the info splitted into two pages.

e.g.
| Lessor | Unconfirmed Earnings | Confirmed Earnings |

Hmm maybe I can try to do that after I do this 1 last thing..  what you are talking about is a good bit more tricky though

Yep... I think it will imply a bit of more work, but that way the user would have all the information in a single page, which I think will result in a better user experience. Right now the page is OK though, so there is no hurry in doing what I suggested (if it seems like a good idea).

It seems that there is a bug. The pool sent me a lot of transactions with 8 Nxt!   

I am willing to send it back to the pool, but there are so many transactions that it makes hard for me to see how much is what i have to give back..   

In my client it shows leased out and more than 1440+ confirmation, but in your pool my account is still in Inbound Leases and showing 286 blocks remaining for a very long time

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