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Re: NXTCrypto.org leased forging pool - - CEASING OPERATIONS
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Author Topic: Re: NXTCrypto.org leased forging pool - - CEASING OPERATIONS  (Read 123129 times)

forkedchain

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woops, I ran it multiple times and forgot to enable the block for last payment (to if reran it wont resend payments) and it resent 1852512149068724265 4 extra payments, so im out 100NXT, hopefully he will see this and send it back
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allbits

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Has anyone studied the economics here any closer yet? With the current pool size, what is the cutoff for number of NXT you would need to contribute to have a reasonable chance of earning > the 3NXT you will spend in fees (1 to lease, 1 for AM to initiate transfer, 1 for fee), assuming you are using the maximum allowed lease time? Looking at the pool stats now and it appears only a very small fraction of people will ever have a chance at recouping their fees.

One can only speculate.  Who knows how many transactions fees are available to be forged?
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k_day

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Well, I think you can do more than speculate. I just haven't taken the time to do the math yet and was wondering if someone has. Assume you have to generate > 3 NXT to make this worth your while. With the maximum lease time, with the current expected forging of this pool, with the current average tx per block, there is some number of NXT that you would need to have and contribute in order to have a chance of coming out ahead.

The math obviously changes as the forging power of the pool changes, Nxt fees eventually adjust, block fees change, etc, but you can certainly make a good guess as to what to expect currently. As it currently stands, it appears that a large majority of people leasing their NXT will not come out ahead.
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allbits

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Well, I think you can do more than speculate. I just haven't taken the time to do the math yet and was wondering if someone has. Assume you have to generate > 3 NXT to make this worth your while. With the maximum lease time, with the current expected forging of this pool, with the current average tx per block, there is some number of NXT that you would need to have and contribute in order to have a chance of coming out ahead.

The math obviously changes as the forging power of the pool changes, Nxt fees eventually adjust, block fees change, etc, but you can certainly make a good guess as to what to expect currently. As it currently stands, it appears that a large majority of people leasing their NXT will not come out ahead.

You can make a guess.  But that's all it is.  There is no way to pin this down mathematically.  AE is brand new.  You have no idea how many assets will be listed or how much trading will occur.  Nobody has any idea.  So your "math" is just a guess.
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k_day

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I think you must be misunderstanding me. I am clearly not saying you can pin this down exactly. That would be an absurd thing to say. I am saying you can analyze existing statistics to make an educated guess at what a break even number is, and make decisions based on that, and how you think the conditions may change.

This isn't a new concept in crypto. Difficulty for PoW coins is a mathematical best guess based on current hashrates to best approximate a target block time. This isn't exact, and yet, this we still deem difficulty to be an important metric to look at. Profitability calculators will calculate your estimated break even time. This too is inexact, but very useful in trying to plan hardware purchases for mining.

Similarly, it is clearly useful to do some analysis of forging pools, if your purpose is to lease your balance with the hopes of earning more NXT than if you hadn't. So yes, you run the numbers to produce a number which assumes nothing in the Nxt ecosystem changes. That is your benchmark with which you then project your opinions about how things will change. "Sure, the numbers say I am projected to earn less than the break even point of 3 NXT based on this pool's forging history, but I am predicting tons of new assets being added and lots of 1000 fee blocks, so I am going to do it anyway."

As it stands, much of the tone I have noticed after the release of pooled forging has been "Don't just let your NXT sit there, put them to work for you in a forging pool!", with the assumption that doing so is better than not. This assumption is not necessarily correct (clearly, as the vast majority of the people in this pool are in the red).

All I am saying is that an analysis of the current state of these forging pools is a very useful piece of data to have when deciding if it is worth it or not for you to lease your balance. It is not the only piece. It is not exact. Of course not. It is supplemented by your beliefs and predictions of what will happen next. But if you think using "math" to make calculated estimates to inform your decision regarding wether or not this makes sense isn't helpful here, then we probably just won't be on the same page.
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k_day

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An example of a calculation that would be pretty easy to come up with, and which hopefully you could see the utility of:

If my contribution to the pool is x%, and me lease time is y blocks, this pool would have to forge n fees in order for me to break even.

You would then make your decision based on what you predict x to be, and if you believe that it is likely for this pool to accrue n fees. This would be a fairly straight forward forging pool calculator to implement. Maybe if I have some free time this weekend...
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allbits

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I think you must be misunderstanding me. I am clearly not saying you can pin this down exactly. That would be an absurd thing to say. I am saying you can analyze existing statistics to make an educated guess at what a break even number is, and make decisions based on that, and how you think the conditions may change.

This isn't a new concept in crypto. Difficulty for PoW coins is a mathematical best guess based on current hashrates to best approximate a target block time. This isn't exact, and yet, this we still deem difficulty to be an important metric to look at. Profitability calculators will calculate your estimated break even time. This too is inexact, but very useful in trying to plan hardware purchases for mining.

Similarly, it is clearly useful to do some analysis of forging pools, if your purpose is to lease your balance with the hopes of earning more NXT than if you hadn't. So yes, you run the numbers to produce a number which assumes nothing in the Nxt ecosystem changes. That is your benchmark with which you then project your opinions about how things will change. "Sure, the numbers say I am projected to earn less than the break even point of 3 NXT based on this pool's forging history, but I am predicting tons of new assets being added and lots of 1000 fee blocks, so I am going to do it anyway."

As it stands, much of the tone I have noticed after the release of pooled forging has been "Don't just let your NXT sit there, put them to work for you in a forging pool!", with the assumption that doing so is better than not. This assumption is not necessarily correct (clearly, as the vast majority of the people in this pool are in the red).

All I am saying is that an analysis of the current state of these forging pools is a very useful piece of data to have when deciding if it is worth it or not for you to lease your balance. It is not the only piece. It is not exact. Of course not. It is supplemented by your beliefs and predictions of what will happen next. But if you think using "math" to make calculated estimates to inform your decision regarding wether or not this makes sense isn't helpful here, then we probably just won't be on the same page.

+1

Well said.
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Jacinto

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woops, I ran it multiple times and forgot to enable the block for last payment (to if reran it wont resend payments) and it resent 1852512149068724265 4 extra payments, so im out 100NXT, hopefully he will see this and send it back

Did you message him/her?

Be careful next time!
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BCNext son.

zuqka

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I am one of the first that leased my acc but god help I dont understand how you run it? Why are the shares constantly different? One day I my share is 3, next 7, today 0!
...
Found the confirmed ones down the list! It's still pretty confusing
« Last Edit: May 22, 2014, 02:12:57 pm by zuqka »
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forkedchain

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look at your confirmed balance versus your unconfirmed.  unconfirmed is recent earnings for the latest 1440 blocks.  these are subject to changes based on what happend in the blockchain

confirmed is for blocks with at least 1440 confirmations and are set in stone

Also Ive constantly been improving the code, and this requires rescanning of all blocks since I started accepting leases, so this can also affect the reporting.

but it is based on the blockchain.  what you are seeing is just reporting, but what is actually the case is already set in stone.

but please check your account under CONFIRMED and you should see earnings there.

what you can expect to see, is that since the unconfirmed balance is only of the latest 1440 blocks, your balance for unconfirmed WILL move up and down, as we forge new blocks, and also as those earnings gradually get confirmed and move down into the confirmed reporting section.
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zuqka

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look at your confirmed balance versus your unconfirmed.  unconfirmed is recent earnings for the latest 1440 blocks.  these are subject to changes based on what happend in the blockchain

confirmed is for blocks with at least 1440 confirmations and are set in stone

Also Ive constantly been improving the code, and this requires rescanning of all blocks since I started accepting leases, so this can also affect the reporting.

but it is based on the blockchain.  what you are seeing is just reporting, but what is actually the case is already set in stone.

but please check your account under CONFIRMED and you should see earnings there.

what you can expect to see, is that since the unconfirmed balance is only of the latest 1440 blocks, your balance for unconfirmed WILL move up and down, as we forge new blocks, and also as those earnings gradually get confirmed and move down into the confirmed reporting section.

Found the confirmed ones down the list! It's still pretty confusing
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forkedchain

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ill split the info into 2 pages and give a good description at the top.  ive been meaning to do this but wanted to complete th AM payment part first
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mess

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ill split the info into 2 pages and give a good description at the top.  ive been meaning to do this but wanted to complete th AM payment part first

I think it would be better if you create a table with three columns instead of having the info splitted into two pages.

e.g.
| Lessor | Unconfirmed Earnings | Confirmed Earnings |
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forkedchain

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Hmm maybe I can try to do that after I do this 1 last thing..  what you are talking about is a good bit more tricky though
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mess

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Hmm maybe I can try to do that after I do this 1 last thing..  what you are talking about is a good bit more tricky though
Yep... I think it will imply a bit of more work, but that way the user would have all the information in a single page, which I think will result in a better user experience. Right now the page is OK though, so there is no hurry in doing what I suggested (if it seems like a good idea).
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Nxter

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cool thanks lets see how it works in a few days.  it works in my lab so I dont see why not

well i sent your nxt, transaction 1 5698822062962606547 but it doesnt seem to be present anywhere.  i used 24 hr deadline so remind me tomorrow if you have to

Hi forkedchain,

I did not receive the payment from the pool nor your tip.
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Nxter

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It seems that there is a bug. The pool sent me a lot of transactions with 8 Nxt!   ::)

I am willing to send it back to the pool, but there are so many transactions that it makes hard for me to see how much is what i have to give back..   :o
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nCtrl

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You received 48 transactions, each containing 8.54916521 NXT for a total of 410.3599301 NXT. From this you should exclude what was your actual payout. Finally, 48 NXT got lost because of the transaction fees involved.
Probably better to stop the script for the time being, until you figure out why it is behaving like this.
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x_coin

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In my client it shows leased out and more than 1440+ confirmation, but in your pool my account is still in Inbound Leases and showing 286 blocks remaining for a very long time

12629788383233825999
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forkedchain

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wow, yeah, but it looks like the same thing happened to a lot of other accounts possibly, since the pool account is nearly empty.  I got some research to do, then some debugging.

but ill probably just give up on autopayments though, and just do it once a week manually for people who request it.

oh well ill back it up wuth my personal acct though, hopefully the others are as honest as you Nxter!  thanks!

Ive disabled the program for now, though we are still forging.  Im actually in holiday in Mexico now.  odd that it was perfectly fine for a few days and as soon as I leave it starts acting up.

actually, it sent you 404 payments of 8.54916521  for a total of 3453.862745  so it was just you it looks like according to my account.  so you were overpaid by 3445.31358 and obviously Ill pay for the 1 NXT transfer back to the pool.  thanks again for your honesty.
« Last Edit: May 24, 2014, 03:49:00 am by forkedchain »
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