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Author Topic: Price speculation  (Read 2401292 times)

mczarnek

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Re: Price speculation
June 04, 2014, 12:18:04 am

And, since I've gone further down this rabbit-hole, I was a long time supporter of Solidcoin/Microcash and I did contribute significantly to the philosophical development of Microcash.  It's a shame that project was never finished. Most people hated it's primary dev and because of his abrasive personality (putting it mildly) most people couldn't look past the personality to take a look at the tech.  I actually had a copy of the Microcash code when it was around %65 complete (it's about 85% complete, and it's been that way for over a year, sitting on the devs digital-shelf.) 

Microcash is/was truly amazing work and although it doesn't have half the features of Nxt, it has solved one problem that I've yet to see be solved efficiently by any other crypto-- instant transaction verification.

Got an idea for instant transaction verification, that I'm going to get to work on very soon.  Any chance I could get a copy of the code to see how they implemented instant transactions?  Or do you know of a link?  Not seeing one after a little bit of searching.
« Last Edit: June 04, 2014, 12:22:54 am by mczarnek »
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Voluntold

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Re: Price speculation
June 04, 2014, 12:23:00 am

I've been to Maldives and its awesome, I don't mind to go back :D
Though to reach the market cap bitcoin had when was at the top looks (almost) impossible :D

Maybe if you don't see a long term future in cryptos, but 10-15 billion marketcap doesn't seem like much if you consider the amount of fiat floating out there.  I heard somewhere that someone calculated that if just 1% of all the money stored in offshore tax havens was transferred into bitcoin, that bitcoins price would be something like > $2,000,000/btc.  Surely Nxt can do $10...
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mczarnek

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Re: Price speculation
June 04, 2014, 12:35:14 am

World money supply is approximately $46.513 trillion.
Source: https://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20090508040147AA0c5WT

$460 Nxt... seems a little bit low to me in the very long run.


Now these $2,000,000 BTC's.. that was if everyone started buying Bitcoin right away and bought in within a month or something?  That seems too high.. how much money is offshore?  Would that be a bubble that would pop a month later?
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rlh

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Re: Price speculation
June 04, 2014, 01:17:38 am

...

Microcash is/was truly amazing work and although it doesn't have half the features of Nxt, it has solved one problem that I've yet to see be solved efficiently by any other crypto-- instant transaction verification.

Got an idea for instant transaction verification, that I'm going to get to work on very soon.  Any chance I could get a copy of the code to see how they implemented instant transactions?  Or do you know of a link?  Not seeing one after a little bit of searching.

Honestly, I wish I could show you.  The source was emailed to me in a password protected, 7-zip file... and I can not find the password.

Anyway, I do know the mechanics of the system and I can discuss it with you.  PM me and I'll fill you in.  FYI, a large portion of our Microcash dev discussion happened in IRC and on the forum.  The forum was getting a bunch of spam (legit spam posts, not troll-type posts) so we locked down the account management system.  Google can't search the site and an admin has to manually activate every account.  That's why you couldn't find any information.
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coolfish

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Re: Price speculation
June 04, 2014, 06:00:10 am

BIG hold should sell some nxt out to new nxters, They will bring more friends.
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ThomasVeil

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Re: Price speculation
June 04, 2014, 06:51:11 am

Now these $2,000,000 BTC's.. that was if everyone started buying Bitcoin right away and bought in within a month or something?  That seems too high.. how much money is offshore?  Would that be a bubble that would pop a month later?

Actually there was this famous wall-street guy and Bitpay-investor saying: if 1% of the money on the cayman islands would go into btc, we would mean $2.4 mio per BTC. Was trying to find the video again - but it was back in January somewhere.


... and looks like I'm the only one really worried about the SEC ruling. Not even the price is budging. Surprises me - if they put one of our bigger asset issuers behind bars it would be a major blow for NXT. The AE is the selling point for NXT, no?
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bizz

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Re: Price speculation
June 04, 2014, 07:05:31 am

Now these $2,000,000 BTC's.. that was if everyone started buying Bitcoin right away and bought in within a month or something?  That seems too high.. how much money is offshore?  Would that be a bubble that would pop a month later?

Actually there was this famous wall-street guy and Bitpay-investor saying: if 1% of the money on the cayman islands would go into btc, we would mean $2.4 mio per BTC. Was trying to find the video again - but it was back in January somewhere.


... and looks like I'm the only one really worried about the SEC ruling. Not even the price is budging. Surprises me - if they put one of our bigger asset issuers behind bars it would be a major blow for NXT. The AE is the selling point for NXT, no?

It is very very very well known fact for ages that you can't offer some unregistered stuff actively to public in one particular country. NXT didn't fall because: 1. it is known 2. it doesn't really matter

I would like to buy some more too btw  :)

Mexxer

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Re: Price speculation
June 04, 2014, 07:27:00 am

Now these $2,000,000 BTC's.. that was if everyone started buying Bitcoin right away and bought in within a month or something?  That seems too high.. how much money is offshore?  Would that be a bubble that would pop a month later?

Actually there was this famous wall-street guy and Bitpay-investor saying: if 1% of the money on the cayman islands would go into btc, we would mean $2.4 mio per BTC. Was trying to find the video again - but it was back in January somewhere.

Here you go:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dNawEe8M1Y&feature=youtu.be&t=14m18s
« Last Edit: June 04, 2014, 07:39:36 am by Mexxer »
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ThomasVeil

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Re: Price speculation
June 04, 2014, 07:37:53 am

Actually there was this famous wall-street guy and Bitpay-investor saying: if 1% of the money on the cayman islands would go into btc, we would mean $2.4 mio per BTC. Was trying to find the video again - but it was back in January somewhere.

Here you go:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dNawEe8M1Y&feature=youtu.be&t=14m18s

Wow, haha - impressive, thank you!
And excuse me - it was 2.8 million - ma memory isn't the best anymore, gettin old ;)
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Mexxer

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Re: Price speculation
June 04, 2014, 07:39:44 am

But his numbers are waaaay of...

Tax Justice Network estimates offshore wealth at 21-32 trillion. (Boston Consulting estimates it at 8 trillion). One percent of 32 trillion gives us 320 billion. 320 billion divided by 12 million bitcoins gives us $26666,66 per bitcoin.

But I think you still have to take volume, and coins in circulation into account ... hmm not really sure.
« Last Edit: June 04, 2014, 07:45:02 am by Mexxer »
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Fatih87SK

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Re: Price speculation
June 04, 2014, 07:41:57 am

It looks like NXT is the only coin going green today @coinmarketcap

ThomasVeil

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Re: Price speculation
June 04, 2014, 07:48:48 am

... and looks like I'm the only one really worried about the SEC ruling. Not even the price is budging. Surprises me - if they put one of our bigger asset issuers behind bars it would be a major blow for NXT. The AE is the selling point for NXT, no?

It is very very very well known fact for ages that you can't offer some unregistered stuff actively to public in one particular country. NXT didn't fall because: 1. it is known 2. it doesn't really matter

I would like to buy some more too btw  :)

So how do we sail around the issue then? We just ignore it until we hit the rock?
For all I see many shares are offering exactly what falls under the SEC ruling (i.e. profit sharing, big investments), and there is no restrictions to sell to US citizens (again: The onus falls on the issuer - no caveat emptor here).
Hate to bum people out, but I would love to be in the clear with that.

But his numbers are waaaay of...

Tax Justice Network estimates offshore wealth at 21-32 trillion. (Boston Consulting estimates it at 8 trillion). One percent of 32 trillion gives us 320 billion. 320 billion divided by 12 million bitcoins gives us $26666,66 per bitcoin.

But I think you still have to take volume, and coins in circulation into account ... hmm not really sure.

Yeah, you can't just add the numbers like that. People have to go to the exchange (or big holders) and buy - and would drive the price up.
So it would be definitely be much higher than the $26k - but I don't know more about his calculation than you do. Kinda trust he knows his stuff around numbers. Let's just take it with a bag of salt.
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bizz

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Re: Price speculation
June 04, 2014, 08:21:36 am

... and looks like I'm the only one really worried about the SEC ruling. Not even the price is budging. Surprises me - if they put one of our bigger asset issuers behind bars it would be a major blow for NXT. The AE is the selling point for NXT, no?

It is very very very well known fact for ages that you can't offer some unregistered stuff actively to public in one particular country. NXT didn't fall because: 1. it is known 2. it doesn't really matter

I would like to buy some more too btw  :)

So how do we sail around the issue then? We just ignore it until we hit the rock?
For all I see many shares are offering exactly what falls under the SEC ruling (i.e. profit sharing, big investments), and there is no restrictions to sell to US citizens (again: The onus falls on the issuer - no caveat emptor here).
Hate to bum people out, but I would love to be in the clear with that.

There is no sail around. Those who offer should get legal advice if they think they should. When you open any new online business you also should get legal advice if you think you should. Those who vote for those laws should have their brains checked (but I guess they're dead - it's from 1934). AE is not called centralized stock market hyip shit. It's decentralized asset exchange. I guess it is possible that someone will  use it to sell offer something  possibly illegal in some jurisdictions. So I guess my point is: when someone does something illegal on the Internet no one sells IT stocks.

on a side note: that guy was running IPOs that turned into highly successful Internet casino, I mean c'mon it's not like no one saw it coming

DoM P

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Re: Price speculation
June 04, 2014, 08:24:10 am

But his numbers are waaaay of...

Tax Justice Network estimates offshore wealth at 21-32 trillion. (Boston Consulting estimates it at 8 trillion). One percent of 32 trillion gives us 320 billion. 320 billion divided by 12 million bitcoins gives us $26666,66 per bitcoin.

But I think you still have to take volume, and coins in circulation into account ... hmm not really sure.

If we're talking about trillion dollars, we should think about where those are. Surely they are not in the fiat from, stored in safe deposits. They are invested, probably all around the globe, in companies, buildings, mutual funds, art, copyrights, etc.
You just can't translate straight to btc form that.
There is a fiat/btc market, but it should be see from the money supply I think. And the world's money supply (M0) is about 5 trillion dollars, 25 if we look at M1, and 60 for M2.
That's what I'm looking at: 1% of M1 (all cash + bank accounts) is $250 billion. Not very very far from what you just said, but more realistic, I would think...

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rickyjames

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Re: Price speculation
June 04, 2014, 11:26:11 am

Crossposted from my comments on the pub thread, just for the heck of it.  Perspective is a useful commodity:

Here's a nice little coinmarketcap.com screenshot from Dec 20, 2013:



Five months later, BTC is up only 3%, LTC is down 30% and PPC is down 45%.  NXT seems to be doing OK, up 265%.

Today on coinmarketcap:

1  Bitcoin $ 8,111,676,279
 
2  Litecoin $ 319,324,773
 
3  Nxt $ 64,465,544
 
4  Darkcoin $ 55,727,699
 
5  Peercoin $ 38,735,389 
 
6  Ripple $ 32,736,493
 
7  Dogecoin $ 29,112,318
« Last Edit: June 04, 2014, 11:37:32 am by rickyjames »

nzminer

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Re: Price speculation
June 04, 2014, 11:31:49 am

Im just happy to see NXT a solid #3, thats where we need to be and it doesnt bother me how long we stay there. :D
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TimmyD

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Re: Price speculation
June 04, 2014, 11:51:25 am

We are still rising 10600k sats at time or writing. just looking the marketcaps we are catcging upto ltc at an alarming rate.
edit 11000k sats  ;D
« Last Edit: June 04, 2014, 11:55:59 am by TimmyD »
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Come-from-Beyond

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Re: Price speculation
June 04, 2014, 11:53:11 am

Five months later, BTC is up only 3%, LTC is down 30% and PPC is down 45%.  NXT seems to be doing OK, up 265%.

BTC is down too, the growth of its capitalization is caused by inflation of the supply.

kodtycoon

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Re: Price speculation
June 04, 2014, 12:03:12 pm

We are still rising 10600k sats at time or writing. just looking the marketcaps we are catcging upto ltc at an alarming rate.
edit 11000k sats  ;D

i think nxt might be the one that spikes along with bitcoin the same way litecoin did in november! #moonville
« Last Edit: June 04, 2014, 12:22:19 pm by ForrestGump »

theironman

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Re: Price speculation
June 04, 2014, 12:08:08 pm

We are still rising 10600k sats at time or writing. just looking the marketcaps we are catcging upto ltc at an alarming rate.
edit 11000k sats  ;D

i think nxt might be the one that spikes along with bitcoin the same way litecoin did in november! #moonville

Maybe. I just bought more, still cheap as soap.
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