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martismartis

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #28220 on: November 01, 2016, 12:21:39 pm »

Price speculation: Ardor versus Ignis
which will be worth more at launch (Q2 or 3 in 2017) ??
which will be worth more over time?
It will depend on when next child chains are allowed to compete with Ignis I suppose.
From what I remember, the first child chains need to be added through some manual process (correct me if I'm wrong here).
And thus it might take a while (speculation).

So, I see a big difference if Ignis is the only child chain for weeks or months in the new Ardor blockchain or if it get a lot of competing child chains (USD, BTC, EUR child chains being the ones I look forward to most).

And depends how easy(or how hard) to create a child chain.

(1) Need a whole knowledge of building a blockchain from scratch? plus the knowledge of Ardor communicating part.
(2) There is a template we can follow, like we build the API interface and setup our nodes then we have our child chain.
(3) Everyone can create one like creating a Currency with some clicks and filling-in, and even duplicate other child chain.

I guess (3) is too good to be true?
If (1) then Ignis probably is the only child chain for months even years.

But I feel it'd be not so hard to duplicate Ignis with some code tweaking? ::)

Should be not so hard to make (3), as somewhen devs said, that there will be just additional field to api, which is childchain id :)
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gh

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #28221 on: November 01, 2016, 05:47:37 pm »

.
« Last Edit: February 05, 2017, 05:28:39 pm by gh »
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rubenbc

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #28222 on: November 03, 2016, 12:41:34 am »

I was looking for news about Nxt and Hyperledger and I found this:

http://www.the-blockchain.com/2016/11/02/veteran-blockchain-expert-bloq-ceo-jeff-garzik-elected-linux-foundation-board-directors/
(for those who do not know it, hyperledger project is a subsidiary of Linux Foundation)

Going back to the past: https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-core-developer-jeff-garzik-believes-nxt-is-a-scamcoin/

Can this guy in some way affect Nxt?

durerus

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #28223 on: November 03, 2016, 07:22:40 am »

Jelurida said they will sell the 500 million IGNIS in an ICO manner. So they have to set an ICO price, perhaps with bonuses etc. They definitely will sell all 500 million coins, because otherwise there will be "bad distribution" ;) Doesnt matter so much, since it is not the forging token, but still scares speculative investors.

This ICO should take place before NXT holders get their 50% IGNIS. Otherwise there would already be a market price and a certain volume. If then they tried to sell at market price, they wouldnt be able to sell 500 million, because volume is too low. If then they tried to sell below market price, they would make IGNIS holders angry ;)

So the ICO will necessarily happen before IGNIS is tradeable and has a market price. Now the question is: What would be a good ICO price?

This is extremely difficult to decide. If they charge too much, they wont get enough funding. And they need funding. Because if they still have to do the ICO in the middle of next year, they will have unsuccessfully tried to get funding in the meantime. So they will think: Better charge only a moderate price.

But what is a moderate price? There are no criteria. Maybe they set a goal of 1 million dollars. That would be "only" 1300 BTC at current prices. Sounds like not much. Would set market cap of IGNIS to 2600 BTC. NXT now still has 8500 BTC market cap.

Now let's assume a bad scenario and say NXT continues to fall and is as low as 500 Sat when the ICO with all its conditions and the price of IGNIS gets announced. With a funding goal of 1 million dollars and a BTC price of 750 dollars they would set a price of 260 Sat per IGNIS, which adds 130 Sat to your NXT and gives it a value of 630 Sat. Now where's the bubble?

The reason why I am writing this is to warn people who think we will see a NXT bubble like with the ARDR snapshot also with the IGNIS snapshot. This will not be the case. Because the value added to your NXT will be known in advance and you dont need to buy NXT to get IGNIS. With ARDR nobody knew how much it will be worth on the market. Therefore there was a speculative hype. With IGNIS we will know, because the ICO price is set in BTC and because we have one seller and buyers (= a market).

But maybe we will have a pre-announcement bubble, you might think. Because before the announcement of the ICO price there might be a speculative hype on how high the ICO price will be set. But again: Is it probable that the ICO price will be high?

The value added to your NXT at 500 Sat due to your right to get 0.5 IGNIS for every NXT you hold would be 130 Sat, if we use the above numbers. Why should the NXT price fly to 2 or 3k Sat in a pre-snapshot bubble when the added value to your NXT due to your right towards half an IGNIS will only be 130 Sat?

You might say that these numbers are pure speculation. Right. But this is what we have to do in the absence of information. Therefore the question is: Are these numbers realistic?

Ask yourself: Is it probable that Jelurida will try to get 10 million dollars of funding? That would mean that IGNIS would be valued at 2.6k Sat. And the added value to your NXT would still only be 1.3k Sat, if all 500 million coins were sold.

10 million dollars would be nice to have for Jelurida. But do you think that collecting 13k BTC for half of the supply of a childchain (!) token is realistic?

Ask yourself this too: Will the price of NXT after the launch of Ardor more likely go up or down?

I would suggest to not speculate on another bubble. If you believe in the Ardor platform, buy ARDR. Buy some IGNIS to play with the functionality. But the real investment here with a chance of dividend is ARDR.

NXT was at 900 Sat this year already before the snapshotphase. Now in the BTC rise we are only a little lower. What will happen once people realize that the ARDR snapshot and the IGNIS snapshot are not at all comparable in relation to hype potential??? It is not looking good for NXT price IMO. Even at these lows.

Think I'm wrong? Prove it!
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blackyblack1

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #28224 on: November 03, 2016, 05:06:10 pm »

Quote
What will happen once people realize that the ARDR snapshot and the IGNIS snapshot are not at all comparable in relation to hype potential???
People got 1 free ARDR for each NXT and will get 0,5 IGNIS for each NXT on the next snapshot. So the IGNIS hype potential is exactly 1/2 of ARDOR. Not bad at all and not "not comparable" for sure.
Now what is actually ARDOR investment potential? It is as low as 0,1% yearly interest rate from forging and nothing more. Hardly a very valuable asset don't you think?
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Pilot

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #28225 on: November 03, 2016, 05:59:03 pm »

Are you saying they are going to set a BTC/INGIS price to sell those coins? Most ICOs just proportionately distribute based on percentage of BTC invested.  So for example, if 500 BTC invested that means 1mm INGIS = 1 BTC.

If they do set a price and it is higher than NXTx2, then the cheaper way to get IGNIS would be to buy NXT before the snapshot.
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capodieci

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #28226 on: November 05, 2016, 05:52:24 am »


NOTE FOR THE COMMUNITY
With Transaction 16419882809150848464 the last 10k shares of DeBuNe have been put on the AE for 40NXT each, leaving DeBuNe 750k assets.

The ICO will start at a value of NXT45 per asset going up, for a total amount of 250k assets.

I really can't wait the ICO to be over to launch DeBuNe :)

Roberto
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farl4bit

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #28227 on: November 05, 2016, 10:47:26 am »

Quote
What will happen once people realize that the ARDR snapshot and the IGNIS snapshot are not at all comparable in relation to hype potential???
People got 1 free ARDR for each NXT and will get 0,5 IGNIS for each NXT on the next snapshot. So the IGNIS hype potential is exactly 1/2 of ARDOR. Not bad at all and not "not comparable" for sure.
Now what is actually ARDOR investment potential? It is as low as 0,1% yearly interest rate from forging and nothing more. Hardly a very valuable asset don't you think?

How do you come up with 0,1% yearly interest rate? It's unknown how many blockchains will be build on top of Ardor and how much value/transactions they will have. It will most certainly have a higher interest rate than Nxt has.
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blackyblack1

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #28228 on: November 05, 2016, 11:01:11 am »

Quote
What will happen once people realize that the ARDR snapshot and the IGNIS snapshot are not at all comparable in relation to hype potential???
People got 1 free ARDR for each NXT and will get 0,5 IGNIS for each NXT on the next snapshot. So the IGNIS hype potential is exactly 1/2 of ARDOR. Not bad at all and not "not comparable" for sure.
Now what is actually ARDOR investment potential? It is as low as 0,1% yearly interest rate from forging and nothing more. Hardly a very valuable asset don't you think?

How do you come up with 0,1% yearly interest rate? It's unknown how many blockchains will be build on top of Ardor and how much value/transactions they will have. It will most certainly have a higher interest rate than Nxt has.
I am using actual numbers. Of course current Ardor price includes speculative expectations of many chains and much profits. But do not expect higher numbers in next couple years.
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durerus

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #28229 on: November 06, 2016, 05:38:48 pm »

Are you saying they are going to set a BTC/INGIS price to sell those coins? Most ICOs just proportionately distribute based on percentage of BTC invested.  So for example, if 500 BTC invested that means 1mm INGIS = 1 BTC.
If they do it like that, the BTC raised at the time for 500 million IGNIS will determine the price. If the ICO BTC address is known, we will always have price information. This information will set a cap to speculation. No hype to be expected in this case too.
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durerus

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #28230 on: November 06, 2016, 07:48:08 pm »

If they make an ICO without bonuses for early birds, everybody will wait until the last day of the ICO. This will create chaos and the team will probably end up with less BTC. That is why almost every ICO has early bird bonuses.

So they will offer bonuses for early birds. Judging from history, the biggest amount of BTC will be raised in that bonus period of the ICO. So as a NXT holder you will get quite good information on how much value will be added to your NXT after the bonus phase is over.

Let's assume they collect 1k BTC in the bonus phase and NXT at that time is at 1k Sat. If you carefully assume that they will raise another 500 BTC after the bonus phase you can based on that calculate the added value to your NXT:

With 1500 BTC raised for 500 million coins IGNIS marketcap is set to 3k BTC. With NXT market cap at 10k BTC this information should drive the price towards 1150 Sat per NXT. A gain as low as 15% for NXT holders. Not comparable at all to the move from 1k to almost 6k Sat due to ARDR snapshotphase, which is a 500% gain.

To get a similar 500% pump with the IGNIS snapshot the ICO would have to raise 50k BTC.

So if you buy NXT now, because you think IGNIS and ARDR snapshots are comparable in relation to hype potential, you are betting on 50k BTC raised for half of the supply of one of possibly many child chain tokens.
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ThomasVeil

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #28231 on: November 06, 2016, 08:56:20 pm »

Interesting calculation.
I tend to underestimate hypes ... but 50k BTC for half of Ignis sounds like a lot. Correct me if I'm wrong here (very possible): Ardor is the currency that backs the blockchain, so there is always use for having it. If lots of currencies are built on top of Ardor, it will gain worth too. But what is Ignis good for? It can be used for common transactions - but so can any other Ardor coin. Ignis has first mover advantage I assume ... and more hype behind it at first, but will have no special features.
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blackyblack1

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #28232 on: November 06, 2016, 09:08:00 pm »

Interesting calculation.
I tend to underestimate hypes ... but 50k BTC for half of Ignis sounds like a lot. Correct me if I'm wrong here (very possible): Ardor is the currency that backs the blockchain, so there is always use for having it. If lots of currencies are built on top of Ardor, it will gain worth too. But what is Ignis good for? It can be used for common transactions - but so can any other Ardor coin. Ignis has first mover advantage I assume ... and more hype behind it at first, but will have no special features.
Current NXT coin price equals exactly the forging function + the rest functions. Now when the forging function is separated into another coin (ARDR) you are asking what the rest of the coin is good for. So you think the most of the NXT value is the forging function? I doubt it. Who cares about forging and tiny profits from it? The most of the NXT value comes from the other features, like messages, payments, voting...
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durerus

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #28233 on: November 06, 2016, 10:55:44 pm »

Exactly @ThomasVeil

To me it seems that Ignis is just the first example of what the Ardor platform can do. Ignis is a product, ARDR is the stock, that potentially pays dividends one day, if lots of products are sold (child chains created and used).

Since the demand for NXT has mostly been a speculative demand and not a demand caused by people who need NXT to use the features, the same will be true for ARDR and IGNIS. Now what will speculators demand: The stock or the product?
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ThomasVeil

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #28234 on: November 07, 2016, 12:30:06 am »

Who cares about forging and tiny profits from it? The most of the NXT value comes from the other features, like messages, payments, voting...

The forging profit isn't important here, but the forging token will have inherent value in relation to the coins it secures. The value can't go to zero, as long as the Ardor-sub currencies have any value. 
The price then would be a speculation that at some point the sub-currencies are so valuable, that Ardor would have to rise too.

Now Ignis has all these other features you list... but so does any other currency anyone creates. What gives me confidence that Ignis will have more value than Ignis2 or 3?

Since the demand for NXT has mostly been a speculative demand and not a demand caused by people who need NXT to use the features, the same will be true for ARDR and IGNIS. Now what will speculators demand: The stock or the product?

The NXT features have been underused recently - it is unclear to me how IGNIS would create new demand for these (maybe there are new ones?).
On the other hand, Ardor is a tool for financial developers. And it will be improved upon NXT. New applications could make use of it. Which is good for ARDR, but not necessarily for IGNIS.
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blackyblack1

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #28235 on: November 07, 2016, 05:42:23 am »

The forging profit isn't important here, but the forging token will have inherent value in relation to the coins it secures.
So you are implying the investors are buying ARDR because it secures something? How should it grow in price if you are not looking at the forging profits?

The value can't go to zero, as long as the Ardor-sub currencies have any value. 
Why do you think so? The NXT market cap is several orders of magnitude lower than the market cap of it's assets. The same is true for US dollar as well. The ADRD value won't go to zero but the price may approach zero very closely.

The price then would be a speculation that at some point the sub-currencies are so valuable, that Ardor would have to rise too.
They are not related as closely as you see them. The only link between Ardor and sub-currencies is transaction fees.

Now Ignis has all these other features you list... but so does any other currency anyone creates. What gives me confidence that Ignis will have more value than Ignis2 or 3?
Now Bitcoin has most of the features of NXT and there is a shitton of other coins around. What gives me confidence that NXT has any value at all?

The creation of new childchaing will be very restricted first years after the Ardor launch. If it is not I would create NXT2 childchain coin with 100% distribution between NXT holders (not 50%), with 10 seconds block times and 0,1 NXT2 fees. It will effectively ruin the Ignis ICO.
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Brangdon

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #28236 on: November 07, 2016, 11:42:38 am »

Interesting calculation.
I tend to underestimate hypes ... but 50k BTC for half of Ignis sounds like a lot. Correct me if I'm wrong here (very possible): Ardor is the currency that backs the blockchain, so there is always use for having it. If lots of currencies are built on top of Ardor, it will gain worth too. But what is Ignis good for? It can be used for common transactions - but so can any other Ardor coin. Ignis has first mover advantage I assume ... and more hype behind it at first, but will have no special features.
First mover advantage should be worth a lot. There should be network effects. If everyone is using Ignis, and that's where the big market places are, then why would anyone move away from that? What you say about Ignis not having special features also applies to other child-coins. They have no USP. They'll be like clones of Bitcoin that add no features; Bitcoin isn't threatened by those because they add no value.

I believe the devs intend to introduce new child-chains slowly and carefully. I hope they don't make it a free-for-all. In addition to the period we have with Ignis the first and only child-chain, I hope we have a long period with just two child-chains.
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gh

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #28237 on: November 08, 2016, 06:26:03 pm »

.
« Last Edit: February 05, 2017, 05:28:30 pm by gh »
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Brangdon

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #28238 on: November 08, 2016, 08:45:32 pm »

First mover advantage should be worth a lot. There should be network effects. If everyone is using Ignis, and that's where the big market places are, then why would anyone move away from that? What you say about Ignis not having special features also applies to other child-coins. They have no USP. They'll be like clones of Bitcoin that add no features; Bitcoin isn't threatened by those because they add no value.

I believe the devs intend to introduce new child-chains slowly and carefully. I hope they don't make it a free-for-all. In addition to the period we have with Ignis the first and only child-chain, I hope we have a long period with just two child-chains.
Have a look at the forum http://heatledger.net (and the thread HEAT Technical Progress). According to the main dev verymuchso: Heat will not only be the fastest and most scalable crypto currency. It will also be a POS cryptocurrency that allows anyone to create a sidechain or private blockchain without writing any code at all, free of charge. So Ardor/Ignis will have competition. Of course careful testing is important, but if the development of Ardor/Ignis takes too long, then someone else will get the first mover advantage.
I meant first mover within the Ardor network. Whether the Ardor ecosystem can compete with other ecosystems is a whole other issue.

I don't know much about HEAT. If they are talking about side-chains and private block-chains, then presumably those will not have the security benefits of Ardor child-chains.
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wolffang

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #28239 on: November 09, 2016, 04:44:30 pm »

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