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jones

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #23800 on: July 12, 2015, 11:19:24 pm »

Are there an unusually high number of long blocks recently, or am I imagining it? If so, can someone open a support ticket please?

I charted the block time in seconds against the block height here is the result: http://i.imgur.com/VrMZf5p.png

What's on the y-axis?

Would be cool to order all of those from lowest time to greatest time to see how accurate the bell curve looks.
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TheCoinWizard

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #23801 on: July 12, 2015, 11:32:55 pm »

Are there an unusually high number of long blocks recently, or am I imagining it? If so, can someone open a support ticket please?

Seems like the next block is not being forged...

That was strange... Block 463205
The about 8 forgers in row were unable to forge the block, and NXT-F9AF-P9FM-V73D-3P736 was able to forge it.

Seems to me the false transaction can still block forgers to create a valid block, so that the forger that knew about it can remove it and forge (aka steal) the block instead.

It happened again, now I got some proof...



Maybe that these first forgers are all under same control (or ) and they wait for the last one under their control to forge the block?

Anyone else noticed these behaviors?
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TheCoinWizard

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #23802 on: July 13, 2015, 01:23:21 am »

It is happening again right now!!!

http://i.imgur.com/F7TDXKX.gif


http://i.imgur.com/DlGLVn8.gif


Block already 2300 seconds delayed!!
And with no pending transactions, strange...
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TheCoinWizard

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #23803 on: July 13, 2015, 01:43:06 am »

Now it changed to this?




Can anyone make sense out of this?
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Tosch110

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #23804 on: July 13, 2015, 01:50:19 am »

Can you elaborate which pattern you see? I have problems understanding which details on the screenshots you refer to. I have not spent much time on this site :-/

Maybe the changing forging order?

capodieci

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #23805 on: July 13, 2015, 02:04:44 am »

So, no blocks for more than 1h. Transactions do not get broadcasted (I have 6 transactions, and they do not appear in the unconfirmed transaction list), a "Phasing Vote Casting" unconfirmed transaction that is 13h old...

Did someone go for a bounty? Something broken?
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Sabertooth

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #23806 on: July 13, 2015, 02:13:47 am »

Well it seems to have cleared up a bit.
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capodieci

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #23807 on: July 13, 2015, 02:23:34 am »

I need a coffee, I was looking at testnet lol (that yes, still have a 13h old unconfirmed transaction)
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TwinWinNerD

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #23808 on: July 13, 2015, 08:57:11 am »

@TheCoinWizard, one of those accounts is mine, and I did not intentionally not forge a block, (not idea how to do that actually) so not sure why my node didn't forge that block in question.

TheCoinWizard

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #23809 on: July 13, 2015, 10:11:04 am »

@TheCoinWizard, one of those accounts is mine, and I did not intentionally not forge a block, (not idea how to do that actually) so not sure why my node didn't forge that block in question.

Yeah I have been in it to once... Easy to skip turn manually. Log out and stop forging for that acoount. The difficult part is to automate that  ;)

But it seems this has not been the case.
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TheCoinWizard

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #23810 on: July 13, 2015, 10:12:16 am »

Can you elaborate which pattern you see? I have problems understanding which details on the screenshots you refer to. I have not spent much time on this site :-/

Maybe the changing forging order?

https://nxtforum.org/transparent-forging/strange-behavior-and-extreme-long-blocks
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Riker

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #23811 on: July 13, 2015, 12:46:06 pm »

Are there an unusually high number of long blocks recently, or am I imagining it? If so, can someone open a support ticket please?

I charted the block time in seconds against the block height here is the result: http://i.imgur.com/VrMZf5p.png

What's on the y-axis?

Seconds between blocks. This chart is a mess but you can see the trend of no significant increase. I'll upload a better chart in a moment.

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Riker

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #23812 on: July 13, 2015, 12:48:56 pm »

Would be cool to order all of those from lowest time to greatest time to see how accurate the bell curve looks.

Here you go http://imgur.com/WyKJyug
I don't think a bell curve is what we expect here since the block time has a lower bound of 0 but no upper bound.
Think about annual precipitation diagrams.
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Cassius

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #23813 on: July 13, 2015, 02:21:26 pm »

Would be cool to order all of those from lowest time to greatest time to see how accurate the bell curve looks.

Here you go http://imgur.com/WyKJyug
I don't think a bell curve is what we expect here since the block time has a lower bound of 0 but no upper bound.
Think about annual precipitation diagrams.

Actually that's pretty impressive. Only a tiny proportion of blocks over 5 minutes.
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bitcoinpaul

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #23814 on: July 13, 2015, 02:25:29 pm »

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crackers

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #23815 on: July 13, 2015, 02:30:37 pm »

FYI: Today's xpool.ca multipool payout is  5k+ NXT, 166+ BTCD, 98+ FIBRE, 605+ BITS, 53+ DASH, 0.417 LTC & 1.906+ BTC
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Riker

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #23816 on: July 13, 2015, 02:36:30 pm »

Would be cool to order all of those from lowest time to greatest time to see how accurate the bell curve looks.

Here you go http://imgur.com/WyKJyug
I don't think a bell curve is what we expect here since the block time has a lower bound of 0 but no upper bound.
Think about annual precipitation diagrams.

Actually that's pretty impressive. Only a tiny proportion of blocks over 5 minutes.

Out of 472072 blocks, 34376 took more than 5 minutes, that's 7.28% and 7731 took more than 10 minutes 1.64%
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Cassius

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #23817 on: July 13, 2015, 02:41:35 pm »

Would be cool to order all of those from lowest time to greatest time to see how accurate the bell curve looks.

Here you go http://imgur.com/WyKJyug
I don't think a bell curve is what we expect here since the block time has a lower bound of 0 but no upper bound.
Think about annual precipitation diagrams.

Actually that's pretty impressive. Only a tiny proportion of blocks over 5 minutes.

Out of 472072 blocks, 34376 took more than 5 minutes, that's 7.28% and 7731 took more than 10 minutes 1.64%

So does it wait for me to try to buy assets before deciding on a 30-minute block?
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Riker

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #23818 on: July 13, 2015, 02:48:21 pm »

Would be cool to order all of those from lowest time to greatest time to see how accurate the bell curve looks.

Here you go http://imgur.com/WyKJyug
I don't think a bell curve is what we expect here since the block time has a lower bound of 0 but no upper bound.
Think about annual precipitation diagrams.

Actually that's pretty impressive. Only a tiny proportion of blocks over 5 minutes.

Out of 472072 blocks, 34376 took more than 5 minutes, that's 7.28% and 7731 took more than 10 minutes 1.64%

So does it wait for me to try to buy assets before deciding on a 30-minute block?

So you are really asking about blocks which include at least one transaction. I'll check that sometime. Also interesting to see if the block time is increased proportionally to the number of transactions it bundles and/or the payload length, it should not.
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Cassius

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Re: Price speculation
« Reply #23819 on: July 13, 2015, 03:00:42 pm »

Would be cool to order all of those from lowest time to greatest time to see how accurate the bell curve looks.

Here you go http://imgur.com/WyKJyug
I don't think a bell curve is what we expect here since the block time has a lower bound of 0 but no upper bound.
Think about annual precipitation diagrams.

Actually that's pretty impressive. Only a tiny proportion of blocks over 5 minutes.

Out of 472072 blocks, 34376 took more than 5 minutes, that's 7.28% and 7731 took more than 10 minutes 1.64%

So does it wait for me to try to buy assets before deciding on a 30-minute block?

So you are really asking about blocks which include at least one transaction. I'll check that sometime. Also interesting to see if the block time is increased proportionally to the number of transactions it bundles and/or the payload length, it should not.

Well, it wasn't really a serious question, but it would be interesting to know what factors influence block time.
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