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Author Topic: Price speculation  (Read 2102646 times)

blackyblack1

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Re: Price speculation
November 10, 2016, 06:25:12 pm

The creation of new childchaing will be very restricted first years after the Ardor launch. If it is not I would create NXT2 childchain coin with 100% distribution between NXT holders (not 50%), with 10 seconds block times and 0,1 NXT2 fees. It will effectively ruin the Ignis ICO.
If it's an Ardor child-chain, I don't see how it can have 10 second block-times. You're NXT2 transactions need to be included in Ardor blocks, which I assume will still be one per minute. Your child-chain won't be able to have faster block-times than Ignis.
One can queue childchain blocks and put them all together in Ardor block. I do not see a problem having 10 second block-times in childchains.

Also, we don't know what the Ignis fees will be. Since Ignis transactions are prunable, the fees don't need to be high as a spam deterrent. I'm hoping they will be lower than Nxt fees.
I am quite sure Ignis fees will be exactly equal to the NXT fees.

In any case, I don't see what would enable your Nxt2 child-chain to have lower fees than Ignis, unless you subsidise Nxt2 by bundling it at a loss.
Ignis fees are made up by core devs without any market estimates. I am pretty sure 0,1 NXT fees are possible as well. What stops me doing it?

Since Ardor will be open-source, someone could clone the whole thing and tweak the cloned Ignis distribution. That's possible whether or not child-chain creation is unrestricted within Ardor. I suspect the reasons that prevent Nxt clones from being a big problem will also prevent cloned Ardor child-chains from being a problem. Essentially, network effects and first-mover advantages.
That is a very different thing. My coin will be run on the fully supported and maintained Ardor platform and my distribution will be 100% legit based on NXT distribution snapshot. Hence 0% chance of scam and great adoption. Nothing compared to making own coin by cloning Ardor.

galeki

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Re: Price speculation
November 10, 2016, 06:38:32 pm

The creation of new childchaing will be very restricted first years after the Ardor launch. If it is not I would create NXT2 childchain coin with 100% distribution between NXT holders (not 50%), with 10 seconds block times and 0,1 NXT2 fees. It will effectively ruin the Ignis ICO.

Wait, we are not creating Ardor to do that?  :o :o :o

Brangdon

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Re: Price speculation
November 10, 2016, 06:59:09 pm

The creation of new childchaing will be very restricted first years after the Ardor launch. If it is not I would create NXT2 childchain coin with 100% distribution between NXT holders (not 50%), with 10 seconds block times and 0,1 NXT2 fees. It will effectively ruin the Ignis ICO.
If it's an Ardor child-chain, I don't see how it can have 10 second block-times. You're NXT2 transactions need to be included in Ardor blocks, which I assume will still be one per minute. Your child-chain won't be able to have faster block-times than Ignis.
One can queue childchain blocks and put them all together in Ardor block. I do not see a problem having 10 second block-times in childchains.
I'm not sure that gains you anything over just monitoring transactions as they are broadcast. What stops double-spends, for example? Who puts the child-chain blocks together? How are conflicts between them resolved? Is there some kind of side-chain infrastructure? Are you getting some custom software from somewhere? If you are using the same consensus mechanism that Ignis uses, then it seems to me that you have no resolution for conflicting transactions until the child-chain blocks are added to the Ardor block-chain.

Quote
Also, we don't know what the Ignis fees will be. Since Ignis transactions are prunable, the fees don't need to be high as a spam deterrent. I'm hoping they will be lower than Nxt fees.
I am quite sure Ignis fees will be exactly equal to the NXT fees.
Um, OK. Why? Doesn't that defeat the point of making the Ardor system scalable?

Quote
In any case, I don't see what would enable your Nxt2 child-chain to have lower fees than Ignis, unless you subsidise Nxt2 by bundling it at a loss.
Ignis fees are made up by core devs without any market estimates. I am pretty sure 0,1 NXT fees are possible as well. What stops me doing it?
0.1 NXT fees would make spam attacks easier. The resulting block-chain bloat would have to be carried forever, so this is a serious consideration. If a similar technical reason also prevents low fees for Ignis, I expect it will apply to other child-chains too. If it doesn't, and fee levels come down to a judgement call about income for bundlers/forgers versus reduced friction for users, then who's to say that the call made for Ignis will be wrong?

Quote
My coin will be run on the fully supported and maintained Ardor platform and my distribution will be 100% legit based on NXT distribution snapshot. Hence 0% chance of scam and great adoption. Nothing compared to making own coin by cloning Ardor.
You've not persuaded me that you can have faster block-times or lower fees, so I think your only advantage is the distribution. I agree that is an advantage, so I'll accept that this is another reason to defer making child-chains a free-for-all until after Ignis has established itself.
NXT-RTYD-LJXQ-EPNJ-H7AQ5. Sponsoring 1 public node at brangdon.duckdns.org.

blackyblack1

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Re: Price speculation
November 10, 2016, 07:45:53 pm

The creation of new childchaing will be very restricted first years after the Ardor launch. If it is not I would create NXT2 childchain coin with 100% distribution between NXT holders (not 50%), with 10 seconds block times and 0,1 NXT2 fees. It will effectively ruin the Ignis ICO.
If it's an Ardor child-chain, I don't see how it can have 10 second block-times. You're NXT2 transactions need to be included in Ardor blocks, which I assume will still be one per minute. Your child-chain won't be able to have faster block-times than Ignis.
One can queue childchain blocks and put them all together in Ardor block. I do not see a problem having 10 second block-times in childchains.
I'm not sure that gains you anything over just monitoring transactions as they are broadcast. What stops double-spends, for example? Who puts the child-chain blocks together? How are conflicts between them resolved? Is there some kind of side-chain infrastructure? Are you getting some custom software from somewhere? If you are using the same consensus mechanism that Ignis uses, then it seems to me that you have no resolution for conflicting transactions until the child-chain blocks are added to the Ardor block-chain.
It sounds right. Probably I will be unable to make faster block times without sufficient effort.

Quote
Also, we don't know what the Ignis fees will be. Since Ignis transactions are prunable, the fees don't need to be high as a spam deterrent. I'm hoping they will be lower than Nxt fees.
I am quite sure Ignis fees will be exactly equal to the NXT fees.
Um, OK. Why? Doesn't that defeat the point of making the Ardor system scalable?
No it doesn't. Fees should give incentive to forge and I do not see how current fees make Ardor less scalable.

0.1 NXT fees would make spam attacks easier. The resulting block-chain bloat would have to be carried forever, so this is a serious consideration. If a similar technical reason also prevents low fees for Ignis, I expect it will apply to other child-chains too. If it doesn't, and fee levels come down to a judgement call about income for bundlers/forgers versus reduced friction for users, then who's to say that the call made for Ignis will be wrong?
As a childchain creator should I worry about it? I just made some settings and gave it a go. I think the best way would be to start with zero fees and start auction bidding when blocks are full. Bitcoin works this way and I do not see any issues with it.

Brangdon

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Re: Price speculation
November 11, 2016, 12:10:53 pm

Quote
Also, we don't know what the Ignis fees will be. Since Ignis transactions are prunable, the fees don't need to be high as a spam deterrent. I'm hoping they will be lower than Nxt fees.
I am quite sure Ignis fees will be exactly equal to the NXT fees.
Um, OK. Why? Doesn't that defeat the point of making the Ardor system scalable?
No it doesn't. Fees should give incentive to forge and I do not see how current fees make Ardor less scalable.
Nxt minimum fees don't give significant incentive to forge. They are as high as they are to prevent spam. Because Ardor is more scalable, its minimum fees don't need to be as high, at least for child-chains. It's not that high minimum fees make Ardor less scalable; it's that if it has high minimum fees, some of the benefit of scalability is being wasted.

I say "minimum fees" because of course, forgers and bundlers can impose higher fees if they want.

Quote
0.1 NXT fees would make spam attacks easier. The resulting block-chain bloat would have to be carried forever, so this is a serious consideration. If a similar technical reason also prevents low fees for Ignis, I expect it will apply to other child-chains too. If it doesn't, and fee levels come down to a judgement call about income for bundlers/forgers versus reduced friction for users, then who's to say that the call made for Ignis will be wrong?
As a childchain creator should I worry about it? I just made some settings and gave it a go. I think the best way would be to start with zero fees and start auction bidding when blocks are full. Bitcoin works this way and I do not see any issues with it.
Now I realise I have no idea how minimum fees are going to be set for child-chains. My impression is that the devs are against child-chains having a formal "owner" with special rights attached to an owner's public key, in case that key gets lost. This is why anyone can bundle transactions into child-chain blocks. So minimum fees probably won't be set by the person who created the child-chain. So they'll be set by the devs, and be the same for all child-chains?

The problem with zero-fees is spam. Bitcoin has some defences against spam, such as coin-age. Whether it has issues is debatable. You need around ~75GB to run a full Bitcoin node now, and some fraction of that is "free" transactions that every full node has to store. Ardor has pruning for child-chain transactions, but transactions will still need to be propagated and stored for 24 hours, and some nodes will want to store the entire history, so allowing a rogue forger to produce gigabytes of free transactions may not be wise.

One approach might to say that some fraction of all Ardor fees are paid, not to the node that forges, but to the following nodes. Currently this is done in Nxt for certain high-fee transactions. It was felt to be too big a change to do for all transactions in Nxt, but Ardor is starting with a clean slate so could consider it. If this was done, and Ardor forgers were having to pay fees for their own blocks, then that would mitigate spam and then maybe there would need to be no lower-limit for child-chain fees. Just a lower limit for the Ardor transactions that include them.

I don't know. There's still a lot about the Ardor design that we don't know.
NXT-RTYD-LJXQ-EPNJ-H7AQ5. Sponsoring 1 public node at brangdon.duckdns.org.

gh

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Re: Price speculation
November 12, 2016, 04:24:54 pm

.
« Last Edit: February 05, 2017, 05:39:23 pm by gh »

farl4bit

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Re: Price speculation
November 12, 2016, 05:56:19 pm

So good time to buy more $ARDR?  8)

rubenaco

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Re: Price speculation
November 12, 2016, 11:39:48 pm

Nxt news – November 2016 (I): There is no friend as loyal as a book

http://nxter.org/nxt-news-november-2016-i-there-is-no-friend-as-loyal-as-a-book/

ThomasVeil

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Re: Price speculation
November 13, 2016, 10:57:41 am

It can be lower than the asset value - as long as it's still a high enough barrier. Should Ardor sub-chains be picked up by significant players, then they would in their self-interest back the value of Ardor.
How do you think it should work? Let's say NAUT is being listed on Ardor and ARDR drops 50%. The NAUT holders should jump in and start buying ARDR to keep it's price high?

Yes, any serious users would do that. If you create an Ardor product you know this in the first place: you will have to do your part to support the network to have security. It's the same as setting up NXT nodes.

And doesn't it contradict your first question? If you think that the value itself can go so low, then why would it be worth forging?
Because you cannot do anything else with it. Better have tiny + with forging than solid 0 without it.

? I can invest in tons of things and get more return than 0.1% of (in this case) valueless Ardor fees.
I.e. I could just put my money in Ignis and even a rise of 1% in a year would be better. Even the average stock market (or Bitcoin) will likely do better than that.

[...] so I'll accept that this is another reason to defer making child-chains a free-for-all until after Ignis has established itself.

That's the part I'm not getting. How is Ignis supposed to establish itself? It is by all means, except for name, NXT2. It will have to compete with the general market plus it's older self.
We gain scalability - but that wasn't an issue yet.
Else the new feature is the decoupling from NXT - which will make third-party financial apps more feasible. And that's the part we defer?

NXT-BPV3-837M-QZTQ-9DQ69  oxpal.com

blackyblack1

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Re: Price speculation
November 13, 2016, 02:08:00 pm

It can be lower than the asset value - as long as it's still a high enough barrier. Should Ardor sub-chains be picked up by significant players, then they would in their self-interest back the value of Ardor.
How do you think it should work? Let's say NAUT is being listed on Ardor and ARDR drops 50%. The NAUT holders should jump in and start buying ARDR to keep it's price high?

Yes, any serious users would do that. If you create an Ardor product you know this in the first place: you will have to do your part to support the network to have security. It's the same as setting up NXT nodes.
I highly doubt you words. Never seen anyone rushing to buy a crashing coin in order to support it's security.

And doesn't it contradict your first question? If you think that the value itself can go so low, then why would it be worth forging?
Because you cannot do anything else with it. Better have tiny + with forging than solid 0 without it.

? I can invest in tons of things and get more return than 0.1% of (in this case) valueless Ardor fees.
I.e. I could just put my money in Ignis and even a rise of 1% in a year would be better. Even the average stock market (or Bitcoin) will likely do better than that.
If you do not hold any ARDR it is the best solution. But if you are a holder there is a choice of just holding or holding and forging.

farl4bit

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Re: Price speculation
November 13, 2016, 11:00:34 pm

Nxt news – November 2016 (I): There is no friend as loyal as a book

http://nxter.org/nxt-news-november-2016-i-there-is-no-friend-as-loyal-as-a-book/

Thanks for this!!   :-*

rubenaco

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durerus

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Re: Price speculation
November 15, 2016, 05:27:03 am

It can be lower than the asset value - as long as it's still a high enough barrier. Should Ardor sub-chains be picked up by significant players, then they would in their self-interest back the value of Ardor.
How do you think it should work? Let's say NAUT is being listed on Ardor and ARDR drops 50%. The NAUT holders should jump in and start buying ARDR to keep it's price high?

Yes, any serious users would do that. If you create an Ardor product you know this in the first place: you will have to do your part to support the network to have security. It's the same as setting up NXT nodes.
I highly doubt you words. Never seen anyone rushing to buy a crashing coin in order to support it's security.

And doesn't it contradict your first question? If you think that the value itself can go so low, then why would it be worth forging?
Because you cannot do anything else with it. Better have tiny + with forging than solid 0 without it.

? I can invest in tons of things and get more return than 0.1% of (in this case) valueless Ardor fees.
I.e. I could just put my money in Ignis and even a rise of 1% in a year would be better. Even the average stock market (or Bitcoin) will likely do better than that.
If you do not hold any ARDR it is the best solution. But if you are a holder there is a choice of just holding or holding and forging.
Amazing grade of sophistry.

blackyblack1

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Re: Price speculation
November 15, 2016, 06:36:14 am

Amazing grade of sophistry.
Sounds like an insulting.

wolffang

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farl4bit

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Re: Price speculation
November 17, 2016, 10:50:06 am

I love Nxt and Ardor news!  ;D

wolffang

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apenzl

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Re: Price speculation
November 18, 2016, 12:08:46 pm

lurker10

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Re: Price speculation
November 18, 2016, 12:16:54 pm

It's time to claim your Nxt books!   8)

Is it a public node at the window? I love the authentic design :D

Great job with the books!
Run a node - win a prize! "Lucky node" project jar: NXT-8F28-EDVE-LPPX-HY4E7

yassin54

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Re: Price speculation
November 18, 2016, 12:24:53 pm

Great Job!! :)
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