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Latest Nxt Client 1.11.10 - NEW RELEASE: Ardor 2.0.5e TestNet - The Ignis ICO is over!! Ardor genesis snapshots will happen at Nxt block 1,630,000 (expected for 25th December)

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Author Topic: price speculation - IGNIS/ARDR  (Read 4404 times)

galeki

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Re: price speculation - IGNIS/ARDR
October 10, 2017, 01:12:32 am

The official is buying ARDR and IGNIS ICO become stalling.

I guess 1:10. :D

Sebastien256

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Re: price speculation - IGNIS/ARDR
October 10, 2017, 01:34:40 am

The official is buying ARDR and IGNIS ICO become stalling.

I guess 1:10. :D

ARDR valued 10 times more than IGNIS?

Honnestly, I doubt that.  ;D
Please drop your ideas concerning Nxt and/or NRS in this topic -> List of feature request for Nxt and/or NRS (with the full list in OP).

galeki

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Re: price speculation - IGNIS/ARDR
October 10, 2017, 02:35:33 am

The official is buying ARDR and IGNIS ICO become stalling.

I guess 1:10. :D

ARDR valued 10 times more than IGNIS?

Honnestly, I doubt that.  ;D

IGNIS sold out @ 0.76 NXT and become stalling @ 1.05, so people think the fair price of IGNIS is between 0.76 and 1.05, let's say 0.9 NXT.

And AE says 1 ARDR is around 3 NXT.

That's already 1 : 3.33 right now.

And I think IGNIS is only use for the fees of its childchain, nothing extra benefits from holding.
Holding ARDR you could got fees from all the childchains.
Holding NXT you could forging and got the 10%-licence staff, but nothing from IGNIS.

In addition, currently the distribution of ARDR is much better than IGNIS.
And I guess devs have to keep around 20% unsold IGNIS after ICO? Because nothing can gain from holding it, they have to sell them gradually.

That's all speculation of course.  ::)

Sebastien256

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Re: price speculation - IGNIS/ARDR
October 10, 2017, 09:41:08 pm

The official is buying ARDR and IGNIS ICO become stalling.

I guess 1:10. :D

ARDR valued 10 times more than IGNIS?

Honnestly, I doubt that.  ;D

IGNIS sold out @ 0.76 NXT and become stalling @ 1.05, so people think the fair price of IGNIS is between 0.76 and 1.05, let's say 0.9 NXT.

And AE says 1 ARDR is around 3 NXT.

That's already 1 : 3.33 right now.

And I think IGNIS is only use for the fees of its childchain, nothing extra benefits from holding.
Holding ARDR you could got fees from all the childchains.
Holding NXT you could forging and got the 10%-licence staff, but nothing from IGNIS.

In addition, currently the distribution of ARDR is much better than IGNIS.
And I guess devs have to keep around 20% unsold IGNIS after ICO? Because nothing can gain from holding it, they have to sell them gradually.

That's all speculation of course.  ::)


Average price of NXT since ICO begin is about: ~0.1175 USD (personal data collection).
Total NXT collected so far: ~157.8075 M NXT.
Total JLRDA sell during ICO so far:  ~253.15 M JLRDA

Average Price of JLRDA = 0.11575*157.8075/253.15 = 0.072 USD

Current price of ARDOR = 0.203389 USD.

So your approximation of 1:3.33 for now is quite good. I do get 1:2.82 with the above approximation.

I just don't think IGNIS will only be value 1/10 of ARDR. It would not make sense since IGNIS is required to use the platform, ARDR is just for collecting fees and i doubt that fees will be very high in the beginning.

I think both will appreciate a lot, ARDOR and IGNIS. Jelurida will have a high insensitive to make the value of IGNIS high, since they own a lot of it.

Where did you get that nothing from IGNIS (no 10%-licence staff?)
« Last Edit: October 11, 2017, 02:22:52 am by Sebastien256 »
Please drop your ideas concerning Nxt and/or NRS in this topic -> List of feature request for Nxt and/or NRS (with the full list in OP).

galeki

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Re: price speculation - IGNIS/ARDR
October 11, 2017, 04:53:37 am

Average price of NXT since ICO begin is about: ~0.1175 USD (personal data collection).
Total NXT collected so far: ~157.8075 M NXT.
Total JLRDA sell during ICO so far:  ~253.15 M JLRDA

Average Price of JLRDA = 0.11575*157.8075/253.15 = 0.072 USD

Current price of ARDOR = 0.203389 USD.

So your approximation of 1:3.33 for now is quite good. I do get 1:2.82 with the above approximation.

I just don't think IGNIS will only be value 1/10 of ARDR. It would not make sense since IGNIS is required to use the platform, ARDR is just for collecting fees and i doubt that fees will be very high in the beginning.

I think both will appreciate a lot, ARDOR and IGNIS. Jelurida will have a high insensitive to make the value of IGNIS high, since they own a lot of it.

Where did you get that nothing from IGNIS (no 10%-licence staff?)

1:10 is just a rough guess and I have no meaning of despising IGNIS.  ;D

If IGNIS's ICO is still sold out instantly in every round then I may change my mind, but it stalled @ 1.05.

And ARDOR keep rising and devs are buying.

Mainly the market's saying.  :D

ThomasVeil

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Re: price speculation - IGNIS/ARDR
October 14, 2017, 05:35:40 pm

Just to add: Ignis will get airdrops thanks to the license used for Ardor. So any clones will have to give 10% of their tokens to holders.
And Ignis will for now be the only chain with (nearly) all the NXT functionality. Not sure how much that wll be used... but well. With Ardor you can't do all that much other than forging/bundling. Which might actually be a lot of work.
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Re: price speculation - IGNIS/ARDR
October 15, 2017, 05:20:24 am

Average price of NXT since ICO begin is about: ~0.1175 USD (personal data collection).
Total NXT collected so far: ~157.8075 M NXT.
Total JLRDA sell during ICO so far:  ~253.15 M JLRDA

Average Price of JLRDA = 0.11575*157.8075/253.15 = 0.072 USD

Current price of ARDOR = 0.203389 USD.

So your approximation of 1:3.33 for now is quite good. I do get 1:2.82 with the above approximation.

I just don't think IGNIS will only be value 1/10 of ARDR. It would not make sense since IGNIS is required to use the platform, ARDR is just for collecting fees and i doubt that fees will be very high in the beginning.

I think both will appreciate a lot, ARDOR and IGNIS. Jelurida will have a high insensitive to make the value of IGNIS high, since they own a lot of it.

Where did you get that nothing from IGNIS (no 10%-licence staff?)

1:10 is just a rough guess and I have no meaning of despising IGNIS.  ;D

If IGNIS's ICO is still sold out instantly in every round then I may change my mind, but it stalled @ 1.05.

And ARDOR keep rising and devs are buying.

Mainly the market's saying.  :D

The price stalled at 1.05 because that price is higher than obtaining IGNIS by buying/holding NXT.  If you buy 2 NXT, you receive 1 IGNIS during snapshot, essentially 1 NXT per Ignis and keep the other NXT.  The IGNIS Price will fall in the middle between ARDOR and NXT.  If the snapshot were today, with ARDOR at .26 and NXT at .06 IGNIS would be around .16     

Brangdon

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Re: price speculation - IGNIS/ARDR
October 15, 2017, 01:02:31 pm

Average price of NXT since ICO begin is about: ~0.1175 USD (personal data collection).
Total NXT collected so far: ~157.8075 M NXT.
Total JLRDA sell during ICO so far:  ~253.15 M JLRDA

Average Price of JLRDA = 0.11575*157.8075/253.15 = 0.072 USD

Current price of ARDOR = 0.203389 USD.

So your approximation of 1:3.33 for now is quite good. I do get 1:2.82 with the above approximation.

I just don't think IGNIS will only be value 1/10 of ARDR. It would not make sense since IGNIS is required to use the platform, ARDR is just for collecting fees and i doubt that fees will be very high in the beginning.

I think both will appreciate a lot, ARDOR and IGNIS. Jelurida will have a high insensitive to make the value of IGNIS high, since they own a lot of it.

Where did you get that nothing from IGNIS (no 10%-licence staff?)

1:10 is just a rough guess and I have no meaning of despising IGNIS.  ;D

If IGNIS's ICO is still sold out instantly in every round then I may change my mind, but it stalled @ 1.05.

And ARDOR keep rising and devs are buying.

Mainly the market's saying.  :D

The price stalled at 1.05 because that price is higher than obtaining IGNIS by buying/holding NXT.  If you buy 2 NXT, you receive 1 IGNIS during snapshot, essentially 1 NXT per Ignis and keep the other NXT.  The IGNIS Price will fall in the middle between ARDOR and NXT.  If the snapshot were today, with ARDOR at .26 and NXT at .06 IGNIS would be around .16     
I don't follow. If people are holding NXT rather than buying IGNIS with it, it must mean they think NXT will still have value after the snapshot. For example, if you have 100 NXT now, they think it better to hold and end with 100 NXT and 50 IGNIS than to buy and end with 0 NXT and 105 IGNIS. So this values 100 NXT as being worth more than 55 IGNIS.

This values IGNIS at roughly half the price of NXT. I don't see how you get an IGNIS valuation close to three times NXT. I also don't see what the price of ARDR has to do with this calculation.

I'm surprised IGNIS is being valued so low. I'd have thought it would be more than NXT, because NXT is dying. I'm also surprised ARDR is so high, because you can't do anything with it. Some people seem to think they'll get revenue from forging with it, but historically forging revenue has been negligible and I doubt that will change in the medium term.
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galeki

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Re: price speculation - IGNIS/ARDR
October 15, 2017, 02:20:25 pm

I'm surprised IGNIS is being valued so low. I'd have thought it would be more than NXT, because NXT is dying. I'm also surprised ARDR is so high, because you can't do anything with it. Some people seem to think they'll get revenue from forging with it, but historically forging revenue has been negligible and I doubt that will change in the medium term.

Here is my guessing:

First, every childchain bundler have to pay ARDR to bundle their trades. If your childchain is super active and you want bundle it with 5 min interval, and if the fee is 1 ARDR, then that's 288 a day and 105,120 ARDR a year.
If you have a bunches of ARDR and can forge a lot, then you can wait and bundle them within your forged block, that's means you can bundle for free?

Second, there'd be a lot of childchains in future and we have the feature of trading them with each other right?
And creating each trading pair with every existing childchian-coins when a new childchain-coin release? that's not a good idea, more efficient way is trading each childchain-coin against one unit, which is ARDR I think. 
ARDR is acting like BTC to other alter-coins, just like those alter-coins exchanges now days.

That's all guessing and I'm not reading too much into the docs, correct me my if I'm wrong.  :D

Sebastien256

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Re: price speculation - IGNIS/ARDR
October 15, 2017, 03:31:13 pm

Fees to trade against ARDR will be about 10 times higher (could be 100, not sure of the exact ratio) than to trade between child chain to child chain.  Also transaction between childchain can be prune so its more efficients.

@galeki, my thinking is that when you see ARDR taking the place of the main trading token, I see IGNIS instead  :).
« Last Edit: October 15, 2017, 04:23:05 pm by Sebastien256 »
Please drop your ideas concerning Nxt and/or NRS in this topic -> List of feature request for Nxt and/or NRS (with the full list in OP).

galeki

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Re: price speculation - IGNIS/ARDR
October 15, 2017, 05:04:10 pm

Just like the fees of BTC is 10+ times higher than altercoins.  :D

Everyone can create their own childchain, and I guess we could easily create a childchain does exactly the same thing the IGNIS does, let's say IG-2.
IG-2 will dilute some value of IGNIS because now we have extra tokens does the same thing.
But that doesn't affect ARDR and may give extra value to it, because IG-2 bundlers need ARDR to bundle their trades, and now ARDR forgers can got IG-2 tokens.

I guess the key of who is the king between IGNIS and IG-2 (and all other childchains) is, who is more actively bundled, which is need more ARDR.

Plus for pure features view, IGNIS does exactly the NXT does (minus the forging), so 1 IGNIS should eq 1 NXT, and that's pretty much the current market says.

For pure speculative view, ARDR already trading for a year and have much better distribution, is more easy to pump and no afraid of 'dev holding 20% coins' thing.

Sebastien256

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Re: price speculation - IGNIS/ARDR
October 15, 2017, 05:42:54 pm


Everyone can create their own childchain, and I guess we could easily create a childchain does exactly the same thing the IGNIS does, let's say IG-2.


I think Jelurida as said that they will not allowed that. In practice, Jelurida can easily embedded in the code that its not possible to create a child chain with all the same functionality as IGNIS. Right now, no child chains have as freedom as IGNIS does. Also, for the moment, only Jelurida can create a childchain.

Jelurida needs to protect their wealth since it consist of mostly IGNIS right now. There is no reasons to create a second IG-2 child chain.

Child chain are bound to certain user cases that include additional restriction. IGNIS purpose is to replace NXT everywhere it can. In practice, Jelurida will not want to maintain forever two pieces of software. So, from a software enginering point of view, I expect that NXT will be eventually phased out, but I think it depends on how successful Ardor is and how fast NXT start to be bloat.

Please drop your ideas concerning Nxt and/or NRS in this topic -> List of feature request for Nxt and/or NRS (with the full list in OP).

galeki

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Re: price speculation - IGNIS/ARDR
October 16, 2017, 11:34:07 am

I think Jelurida as said that they will not allowed that. In practice, Jelurida can easily embedded in the code that its not possible to create a child chain with all the same functionality as IGNIS. Right now, no child chains have as freedom as IGNIS does. Also, for the moment, only Jelurida can create a childchain.

Jelurida needs to protect their wealth since it consist of mostly IGNIS right now. There is no reasons to create a second IG-2 child chain.

Child chain are bound to certain user cases that include additional restriction. IGNIS purpose is to replace NXT everywhere it can. In practice, Jelurida will not want to maintain forever two pieces of software. So, from a software enginering point of view, I expect that NXT will be eventually phased out, but I think it depends on how successful Ardor is and how fast NXT start to be bloat.

Yeh, so many things are still unclear. If Jelurida hard code some rule to ensure IGNIS is the king, that does change everything.

Just wait two month we can see how it works. So excited~  ;D

Brangdon

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Re: price speculation - IGNIS/ARDR
October 16, 2017, 01:23:53 pm

I'm surprised IGNIS is being valued so low. I'd have thought it would be more than NXT, because NXT is dying. I'm also surprised ARDR is so high, because you can't do anything with it. Some people seem to think they'll get revenue from forging with it, but historically forging revenue has been negligible and I doubt that will change in the medium term.

Here is my guessing:

First, every childchain bundler have to pay ARDR to bundle their trades. If your childchain is super active and you want bundle it with 5 min interval, and if the fee is 1 ARDR, then that's 288 a day and 105,120 ARDR a year.
288 ARDR a day is a certain level of demand, but I would expect anyone actually using Ignis to have a much higher level of demand, as working capital. For comparison, the price of Bitcoin is high even though it isn't used for forging.

Quote
If you have a bunches of ARDR and can forge a lot, then you can wait and bundle them within your forged block, that's means you can bundle for free?
That's worth something, but it is worth more than the interest which that much ARDR would gain if it was invested elsewhere? Historically income from forging has been derisory, and I don't expect that to change in the medium term. (It doesn't make much difference whether that income comes from costs saved forging your own chain, or payments from other chains.) Even in the long term, we may want to keep fees low (to about the same level as costs) to encourage usage.

Quote
Second, there'd be a lot of childchains in future
That's why I said "medium term". Ardor will launch without any API for creating new child-chains. I'm guessing it will be six months or so before any are added, and then it will be in a very cautious and controlled way, in code. This vision where there are scores of child-chains may happen eventually, but I think it will be years away. I also tend to discount that future because I think there's a real risk it won't happen. In four years Nxt never set the world alight and Ardor might not either.

Quote
And creating each trading pair with every existing childchian-coins when a new childchain-coin release? that's not a good idea, more efficient way is trading each childchain-coin against one unit, which is ARDR I think.
It can be any coin, and the logical coin is Ignis. The reason for making the common currency a child-chain one being, those trades can eventually be pruned because they don't affect security. Any trades involving Ardor will have to be kept. Hence using ARDR as a common currency will create bloat, and correspondingly high transaction fees. The whole point of the architecture is to avoid ARDR transactions as much as possible. So it will be a child-chain currency, and the logical choice is Ignis because it has first mover advantage.

Quote
That's all guessing and I'm not reading too much into the docs, correct me my if I'm wrong.
Same here. I feel this splitting into a transaction coin and a forging coin is a huge experiment, and it's hard to predict how it will pan out. Previously, if you wanted to use the platform at all, you had to have NXT, and if you had it you might as well forge with it. Even then, 60% of holders didn't forge. Now you can use the platform using only IGNIS. Someone needs to hold ARDR and forge with it, for the good of the community. Maybe holders of IGNIS will also hold ARDR to help secure it, as part of the cost of doing business. To me that seems like the main driver for high market cap.
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galeki

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Re: price speculation - IGNIS/ARDR
October 17, 2017, 07:15:48 am

Very good points, thank you Brangdon!  ;D

Same here. I feel this splitting into a transaction coin and a forging coin is a huge experiment, and it's hard to predict how it will pan out. Previously, if you wanted to use the platform at all, you had to have NXT, and if you had it you might as well forge with it. Even then, 60% of holders didn't forge. Now you can use the platform using only IGNIS. Someone needs to hold ARDR and forge with it, for the good of the community. Maybe holders of IGNIS will also hold ARDR to help secure it, as part of the cost of doing business. To me that seems like the main driver for high market cap.

Yes, that's also my worry about. In current design, ARDR has no functions other than securing the network, and if we can't give it some intrinsic value or it can't get enough fees from forging, than there'd be even fewer forgers than NXT. And that threaten the security of ALL childchains not only IGNIS and ARDR itself.

Fortunately we distributed ARDR according NXT, I think we can count on those NXT forgers for a while.  :)
« Last Edit: October 17, 2017, 10:16:51 am by galeki »

cayenne

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Re: price speculation - IGNIS/ARDR
October 17, 2017, 03:51:40 pm

I'm not so sure. I think ARDR forging might be profitable. If you have lots of child chains and transaction fees are paid in Ardor, then a forger could make some decent money.

ThomasVeil

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Re: price speculation - IGNIS/ARDR
October 17, 2017, 10:03:59 pm

I worry that it will be all too complicated. Already NXT is not easy for noobs. Getting a server running took me a full weekend. Now with Ardor I have to somehow learn about the child-currencies... set up bundling... check if it's profitable and all that. I mean, maybe it's easier than I imagine, but it will surely mean even less users go for the effort.   
And since NXT seems to already use up the server's memory a lot (as far as I understand), I worry if I can even run both chains on it. I might have to chose one. How many users would have two systems running for forging?
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Sebastien256

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Re: price speculation - IGNIS/ARDR
October 17, 2017, 10:59:13 pm

Ardor forging is as in NXT forging, click and forge block.
Please drop your ideas concerning Nxt and/or NRS in this topic -> List of feature request for Nxt and/or NRS (with the full list in OP).

galeki

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Re: price speculation - IGNIS/ARDR
October 18, 2017, 11:36:26 am

I'm not so sure about the ratio settings of bundle, decide to learn it in practice. ;)

Brangdon

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Re: price speculation - IGNIS/ARDR
October 19, 2017, 12:54:00 pm

Brangdon - my sincere apologies, I accidentally the whole thing to your post. and it was a good post too.  ill make it a point to do better

-forkedchain
« Last Edit: October 23, 2017, 01:25:35 pm by forkedchain »
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